| 1. |
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY |
| 1.1. |
This Report |
| 1.2. |
Autonomous Vehicles – Key Takeaways |
| 1.3. |
Autonomous Vehicle Opportunity in 2034 |
| 1.4. |
Autonomous Component and Services Revenue Forecast 2024-2034 |
| 1.5. |
Electric Vehicle – Key Takeaways |
| 1.6. |
Electric Vehicle Opportunity in 2034 |
| 1.7. |
Electric Vehicle Component Revenue Forecast 2024-2034 |
| 1.8. |
Connected and Software Defined Vehicles – Key Takeaways (1) |
| 1.9. |
Connected and Software Defined Vehicles – Key Takeaways (1) |
| 1.10. |
Connected and Software Defined Vehicle Opportunity in 2034 |
| 1.11. |
Connected and Software Defined Vehicle Services Revenue Forecast 2024-2034 |
| 1.12. |
In-Cabin Sensing – Key Takeaways |
| 1.13. |
In-Cabin Sensing Opportunity in 2034 |
| 1.14. |
In-Cabin Sensors Sales Revenue 2024-2034 |
| 1.15. |
Total Opportunity in 2034 |
| 1.16. |
Component Revenue Opportunity Forecast for Future Automotive Technologies 2024-2034 |
| 1.17. |
Service Revenue Opportunity Forecast for Future Automotive Technologies 2024-2034 |
| 1.18. |
Total Opportunity Forecast for Future Automotive Technologies 2024-2034 |
| 2. |
AUTONOMOUS CARS |
| 2.1. |
Introduction |
| 2.1.1. |
Included in this Chapter |
| 2.1.2. |
Three Key Takeaways for Autonomous Cars |
| 2.1.3. |
SAE Levels of Automation in Cars |
| 2.1.4. |
The Automotive Market is Now Recovering From COVID-19 |
| 2.2. |
Private Vehicles |
| 2.2.1. |
ADAS and AV key terminologies |
| 2.2.2. |
Legislative Barriers for Private Autonomous Vehicles |
| 2.2.3. |
The Autonomous Legal Race |
| 2.2.4. |
Progression of Level 0, Level 1 and Level 2 |
| 2.2.5. |
Emergence of level 3 and Level 4 Technologies |
| 2.2.6. |
Leading Level 2 OEM – Tesla |
| 2.2.7. |
Leading Level 2 OEMs – GM with Super Cruise and Ford with BlueCruise |
| 2.2.8. |
Leading Chinese OEMs – XPeng and Arcfox, pushing for level 4 |
| 2.2.9. |
Level 3 – Mercedes S-Class (2021), EQS (2022) |
| 2.2.10. |
Private Vehicle Leaders |
| 2.2.11. |
When Will There be Level 5? |
| 2.3. |
Level 4 Robotaxis |
| 2.3.1. |
MaaS Level 4 is Different From Privately Owned Level 4 |
| 2.3.2. |
Robotaxis & Robot Shuttles |
| 2.3.3. |
Furthest testers in 2022 |
| 2.3.4. |
Benchmarking Performance with Miles per Disengagement |
| 2.3.5. |
Robotaxis Now Approaching Human Levels of Safety |
| 2.3.6. |
The Beginning of Commercial Robotaxi Services |
| 2.3.7. |
Robotaxi Commercial Service market entry by region |
| 2.3.8. |
State of development |
| 2.3.9. |
Cruise Controversy in Q4 2023 |
| 2.3.10. |
Cruise’s Relaunch and IDTechEx’s Take on the Situation |
| 2.4. |
Sensors for ADAS and Autonomous Technologies |
| 2.4.1. |
The Big Three Sensors |
| 2.4.2. |
Sensor Requirements for Different Levels of Autonomy |
| 2.4.3. |
Sensor Suite Costs |
| 2.4.4. |
Front Radar Applications |
| 2.4.5. |
The Role of Side Radars |
| 2.4.6. |
Vehicle Camera Applications |
| 2.4.7. |
LiDARs in Automotive Applications |
| 2.5. |
Key Autonomous Car Forecasts |
| 2.5.1. |
Global Vehicle Sales and Peak Car by SAE Level 2022-2044 |
| 2.5.2. |
Sensors for Cars Revenue: 2022-2044 |
| 2.5.3. |
Autonomous Cars Summary |
| 3. |
ELECTRIC CARS |
| 3.1. |
Introduction |
| 3.1.1. |
Electric Vehicle Definitions |
| 3.1.2. |
Three Key Takeaways for Electric Cars |
| 3.2. |
Emissions Regulations & Targets |
| 3.2.1. |
China Purchase Subsidies Extended |
| 3.2.2. |
EU Emissions and Targets |
| 3.2.3. |
US Emissions Standards |
| 3.2.4. |
COP26 Transport Targets |
| 3.2.5. |
COP27 Transport Targets |
| 3.2.6. |
Powertrain Tailpipe Emissions Comparison |
| 3.2.7. |
Grid Emissions (1) |
| 3.2.8. |
Grid Emissions (2) |
| 3.3. |
Electric Car Market Trends |
| 3.3.1. |
Cars – Total Cost of Ownership |
| 3.3.2. |
Electrified OEMs Have High Market Caps |
| 3.3.3. |
OEM Sales Global Sales Shares 2015-2023 |
| 3.3.4. |
Hybrid Car Sales Peak |
| 3.3.5. |
Hybrid Car (HEV) Regional Sales 2015-2022 |
| 3.3.6. |
Fuel Cell Car Models |
| 3.3.7. |
Honda to Re-enter FCEV the Market |
| 3.3.8. |
Growth and Stagnation of Fuel Cell Passenger Cars |
| 3.3.9. |
Hydrogen: Emissions & Cost Issues |
| 3.3.10. |
Fuel Cell Car Forecasts |
| 3.3.11. |
Chip Shortages – 2020 to 2023 |
| 3.3.12. |
Chip Shortages – Automaker Reactions |
| 3.3.13. |
Chip Shortages – Electric Vehicles |
| 3.3.14. |
Electric Pickups – The Big US Opportunity |
| 3.3.15. |
Electric Pickup Release Dates |
| 3.3.16. |
Electric Pickups Battery, Motor & Towing Benchmark |
| 3.3.17. |
Electric Pickup Model Pricing |
| 3.3.18. |
Tech Companies Entering the EV Market (1) |
| 3.3.19. |
Tech Companies Entering the EV Market (2) |
| 3.3.20. |
OEM ICE Phase Out and BEV Production Targets |
| 3.4. |
Key Forecasts |
| 3.4.1. |
Global Car Sales by Powertrain 2015-2044 |
| 3.4.2. |
Electric Cars Summary |
| 4. |
CONNECTED AND SOFTWARE DEFINED VEHICLES |
| 4.1. |
Software Defined Vehicles |
| 4.1.1. |
What is a software-defined vehicle? |
| 4.1.2. |
Hardware requirements for an SDV |
| 4.1.3. |
Software-Defined Vehicle Level Guide |
| 4.1.4. |
SDV Level Chart : Major OEMs compared |
| 4.1.5. |
SDV Level Guide Explained |
| 4.1.6. |
SDV feature map |
| 4.1.7. |
SDV Feature Forecast 2013-2034 (1) |
| 4.1.8. |
SDV Feature Forecast 2013-2034 (2) |
| 4.1.9. |
Over-the-Air updates and diagnostics |
| 4.1.10. |
SDV Feature Revenue Forecast by SDV Level 2024- 2034 (Global Revenue) |
| 4.1.11. |
Software-Defined Vehicle Forecast (Units) |
| 4.1.12. |
SDV Conclusions and Key Takeaways (1) |
| 4.1.13. |
SDV Conclusions and Key Takeaways (2) |
| 4.2. |
Connected Vehicles |
| 4.2.1. |
What is a Connected Vehicle? |
| 4.2.2. |
Connected Vehicles Key Terminology |
| 4.2.3. |
Radio Access Technologies Compared |
| 4.2.4. |
The Connected Vehicle Supply Chain |
| 4.2.5. |
Radio Access Technologies Compared |
| 4.2.6. |
V2V/V2I Supply Chain |
| 4.2.7. |
V2X Chipsets – Comparison (1) |
| 4.2.8. |
V2X Modules – Comparison (2) |
| 4.2.9. |
Example V2V/V2I use cases summarised |
| 4.2.10. |
V2X Regional Regulatory Status |
| 4.2.11. |
V2V/V2I Uptake Forecasting (expected) |
| 4.2.12. |
V2V/V2I Radio Access Technology Forecast (expected) |
| 4.2.13. |
Why 5G Matters for Autonomy |
| 4.3. |
Key Forecasts |
| 4.3.1. |
SDV Feature Forecast (Global Revenue) |
| 4.3.2. |
Software-Defined Vehicle Forecast (Units) |
| 4.3.3. |
V2V/V2I Uptake Forecasting (expected) |
| 4.3.4. |
V2V/V2I Radio Access Technology Forecast (expected) |
| 4.3.5. |
Connected and Software Defined Cars Summary |
| 5. |
IN-CABIN MONITORING |
| 5.1. |
Acronyms and Definitions |
| 5.2. |
Introduction |
| 5.2.1. |
Interior Monitoring System (IMS), Driver-MS and Occupant-MS |
| 5.2.2. |
Why Driver Monitoring? |
| 5.2.3. |
What is Driver Monitoring? |
| 5.2.4. |
Current Technologies for Interior Monitoring System (IMS) |
| 5.2.5. |
Technologies Categorization: Driver Monitoring System (DMS) |
| 5.3. |
OEM IMS Technology Choices |
| 5.3.1. |
Overview of In-Cabin Sensors by OEM (1) |
| 5.3.2. |
Overview of In-Cabin Sensors by OEM (2) |
| 5.3.3. |
Summary of Sensors for In-Cabin Monitoring |
| 5.4. |
IMS Sensing Technologies Overview |
| 5.4.1. |
Infrared (IR) Cameras in DMS |
| 5.4.2. |
Trend – Integration into Mirrors or Displays with ADAS |
| 5.4.3. |
Potential Integration Areas |
| 5.4.4. |
IR Cameras for Passenger Cars – Volume Forecast 2020-2034 |
| 5.4.5. |
Average IR Camera Per Passenger Car: 2020-2034 |
| 5.4.6. |
ToF Camera for DMS – Principles |
| 5.4.7. |
ToF Imaging Sensors: Resolution and Price Benchmarking |
| 5.4.8. |
Yearly Volume Forecast ToF Cameras: 2020-2034 |
| 5.4.9. |
Average Number of ToF per Vehicle: 2020-2034 |
| 5.4.10. |
Radar – Introduction |
| 5.4.11. |
Comparison of In-Cabin Radars |
| 5.4.12. |
Forecast – Yearly Volume Sales of Radar: 2020-2034 |
| 5.4.13. |
Forecast – Radar Per Vehicle: 2020-2034 |
| 5.4.14. |
Current Status of Capacitive Sensors in DMS |
| 5.4.15. |
Evolution of DMS Sensor Suite from SAE Level 1 to Level 4 |
| 5.4.16. |
Data Privacy |
| 5.5. |
Key Forecasts |
| 5.5.1. |
Yearly Volume Sales Forecast: In-Cabin Sensors (Millions): 2020-2034 |
| 5.5.2. |
Yearly Market Size Forecast: In-Cabin Sensors (US$ Billions): 2020-2034 |
| 5.5.3. |
In-Cabin Sensing Summary |
| 6. |
FORECASTS |
| 6.1. |
Total Cars Forecasting Methodology |
| 6.1.1. |
Methodology Comments |
| 6.1.2. |
Forecasting Methodology: Robotaxis |
| 6.1.3. |
Robotaxi Commercial Service market entry by region |
| 6.1.4. |
Robotaxi Fleet Size 2024-2034 |
| 6.1.5. |
Robotaxi Service Revenue 2024-2034 |
| 6.1.6. |
Forecasting Methodology: Private Cars (1) |
| 6.1.7. |
Forecasting Methodology: Private Cars (2) |
| 6.1.8. |
Total Vehicles Forecast by Region 2024-2034 |
| 6.1.9. |
Total Vehicle Forecast by SAE Level 2024-2034 |
| 6.1.10. |
Total Vehicle Sales Revenue by SAE Level Forecast 2024-2034 |
| 6.1.11. |
Sales Revenue from Autonomous Driving Sensors |
| 6.1.12. |
Electric Vehicle Sales Forecast 2024-2034 |
| 6.1.13. |
Electric Vehicle Sales Revenue Forecast 2024-2034 |
| 6.1.14. |
Electric Vehicle Key Components Revenue 2024-2034 |
| 6.1.15. |
Vehicle Sales Forecast by SDV Level 2024-2034 |
| 6.1.16. |
Revenue from SDV Features & Services Forecast 2024-2034 |
| 6.1.17. |
In-Cabin Sensor Sales Forecast 2034-2034 |
| 6.1.18. |
In-Cabin Sensors Sales Revenue 2024-2034 |
| 6.1.19. |
Component Revenue Opportunity Forecast for Future Automotive Technologies 2024-2034 |
| 6.1.20. |
Service Revenue Opportunity Forecast for Future Automotive Technologies 2024-2034 |
| 6.1.21. |
Total Opportunity Forecast for Future Automotive Technologies 2024-2034 |