Since the United Auto Workers waged a nationwide strike against the Detroit Three automakers one month ago — Ford Motor Co., General Motors and Stellantis, formerly Chrysler Fiat brands — more than 30,000 autoworkers have walked off the job and stopped building vehicles, including at the Kentucky Truck Plant.

Now that vehicles such as the Ford Super Duty, Ford Bronco and Ford Ranger are no longer being built while the strike continues, Ford dealerships are bracing for what could happen as the supply chain feels a pinch.

How much does Ford stand to lose?

KTP on Chamberlain Lane, which builds the Ford Super Duty, saw its roughly 9,000 workers walk out on strike on Oct. 11. The plant is Ford’s most profitable facility, making roughly $25 billion per year in revenue, according to Ford.

Rhett Ricart, CEO and owner of Ricart Automotive Group, based in Ohio, previously said in a national media call that the Ford Super Duty represents more than 10% of sales for the 3,000 Ford dealerships across the U.S. Ricart said striking KTP not only causes negative implications for Ford and its suppliers, but the dealerships and their employees stand to be hurt.

And according to UAW Local 862 President Todd Dunn, for every day the plant, which produces Ford’s famed F-Series Super Duty Trucks, is on strike, the company loses $30 million in profit. UAW International President Shawn Fain also noted that if KTP were its own company, it would be a Fortune 500 company because of how much revenue and profit it produces annually.

The truck plant produces $48,000 per minute, Fain added previously.

How will the UAW Ford strike impact consumers who ordered vehicles?

Consumers stand to see delays on vehicles that have already been ordered as well as future price increases, experts said.

For example, consumers who have ordered a Ford Bronco and were previously told the vehicle would be ready in 10 months from the order time, can now expect at least an additional one-month delay before receiving the vehicles.

On top of the delay, consumers should expect to cover the cost of lost production as well as a new contract — once reached.

A Ford dealership source in the Greater Louisville area, who was not authorized to speak to the media, told the Courier Journal that “historically” Ford has passed down the cost of production delays and work stoppages to consumers noting that he previously had a customer order a Ford Bronco with an original sticker price of $84,000 and within the six months it took for Ford to fulfil the order, the final price had increased roughly another $13,000.

“They’ll bump the prices on trucks again to meet whatever agreement they come to,” he said.

How will the UAW strike impact Ford dealerships?

Some dealerships are already starting to experience setbacks related to the strike. In a notion of solidarity, the Teamsters union, which represents freight drivers and warehouse workers at various companies across the country, has vowed to not cross a picket line, meaning they will not pick up and transport products from striking plants.

“Teamsters don’t cross the picket lines,” Avral Thompson, president of Teamsters Local 89 in Louisville and the national car haul director, previously said. “If it comes down to it and you can’t get a fair contract and you have to strike, we’re behind you 1,000%. None of their product will ship.”

Despite the continuing strike and lack of vehicle shipments, Christian Miller, the CEO of Dealer Trade Network, a Louisville-based company that facilitates the trade of vehicles across 4,000 dealerships nationally, said many dealerships across Kentucky are currently seeing a 24% increase in the supply of 2023 model vehicles and a 13% increase in the supply of 2024 models.

“We anticipated that there might be an overall increase in supply toward the beginning of the strike,” Miller said. “It is likely that factories were able to release a final push of vehicles out into the market as the strike began, which would explain what we’ve seen.”

However, not all vehicle models are created equal. While overall supply is trending up, specific models, such as the 2023 Ford Edge and 2023 Ford Expedition, are experiencing between 54% and 72% reduction in supply in Kentucky.

“As the strike goes on, we do anticipate inventory shortages over a larger number of models than we are today, one month into the strike — especially as we transition from the 2023 to 2024 model years on dealer lots,” Miller said. “To put things into perspective, we’re seeing over 4,000 2023s in the state of Kentucky while there are roughly 400 2024s in the state.” 

The Ford dealership source in Louisville noted that at any given time, Louisville can have between 20,000 and 40,000 Super Duty Trucks sitting in offsite locations waiting to be shipped to dealerships and customers around the country, adding that his “lot is full for the first time in a long time.”

For now, the supply levels large dealerships like the ones in Louisville are seeing will be enough to meet customer demand for a couple of months. Miller said there has not been a major increase in consumer demand during the strike, which has allowed dealerships to carry on with “business as usual,” but that may eventually change, depending on the duration of the strike.

“It’ll be a while before anybody feels the full pinch of it all,” the Louisville dealership source said.

Contact business reporter Olivia Evans at [email protected] or on Twitter at @oliviamevans_.