The automotive tech field has faced a year of challenges as carmakers in the US, including market leader Tesla, have pulled back on electric vehicle production even as sales of EVs surge in China.
Small EV maker Fisker just filed for a chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization, joining a list that includes Porterra, Lordstown and Electric Last Mile Solutions.
And what of the movement toward self-driving vehicles? A recent recall of 672 self-driving Waymo vehicles came after an Arizona collision into a wooden pole in an alleyway at slow speed. The crash sounded more horrific than it was, because there were no passengers and no one was injured. A software update was quickly devised to improve pole detection. All the vehicles were quickly repaired, but the incident does show that the state of the art is trial and error–and reboot.
Such reports make it seem at times the car industry in the US is stalled, but there are still promising signs. Even as consumers worry about EV range (350 miles is what most desire), 20-minute charging times and a lower vehicle price, GM CEO Mary Barra said as recently as June that the company is still committed to selling only electric vehicles by 2035. (Maybe with a price for a lower-end GM EV at $35,000.) That could change as consumer sentiments change, obviously, and if government support for purchase incentives and charging station rollouts shifts into reverse under a future president.
Still, the move toward EVs and autonomous vehicles (AVs) appears to be healthy, certainly globally, aside from concerning signs in the US. IDC researchers in China recently studied six major vehicle brands there (including Tesla), revealing a highly competitive industry that has benefited from artificial intelligence and other technologies to enable a connected, autonomous, shared and electric (CASE) mobility trend.
“Foundation and large language models used in AV development have enabled highly accurate and robust perception, virtual test case generation and voice-based assistance with multi-language support for reporting and automating various other processes across the AV cycle,” said Sandeep Mukunda, research manager at IDC, in a statement.
IDC proclaimed investment in autonomous driving, at least in China, remains a “certain trend.”
It might sound odd to look to China as the innovator to watch in auto tech, especially with the way the Biden administration has clamped down on China-US electronics trade over worries China could use US-made technology to threaten US security. In related fashion, Biden recently imposed a 100% tariff on auto imports from China to protect US production and American workers.
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The main reason to mention China’s progress in auto tech is to highlight a bountiful amount of research and testing in EV and AV innovations, which could, and should, bolster the commitment of many companies to long term EV and AV development.
Researchers and proponents of the technologies are being realistic about the state of EVs and AVs in US lately, but some who talked to me also take the long view and urge investors to do the same.
“Sure, EVs seem to be taking a breather right now, in several key markets, and the hype around AVs is also gone. But there is no doubt that the future of mobility is electric and automated,” Sven Beiker, managing director of Silicon Valley Mobility told me.
He added: “Investments should be more thoughtful than in the past. I can only urge new and old players to keep investing into electrification and automation if they want to be in business post-2030. There might be a lot of hybrid powertrains and lower-level automation, but the direction is clear and investments are necessary.”
Jack Gold, president and principal analyst at J. Gold Associates, said reduced sales of vehicles generally result in a reduction in R&D dollars. But many AV companies are smaller tech companies that run on VC funding. The major car companies have their own research dollars, but also rely on the smaller companies and even the big chipmakers like Nvidia, Intel and Qualcomm.
“The bigger issue is that the Chinese pose a major threat to getting it done first,” Gold added. “They have tons of money with government subsidies that mean plenty of R&D and they are motivated, even if they see restrictions on their vehicles in the US and Europe. So they are a real competitive threat, both in AV and in general EV markets.”
Long term, Gold believes cars will eventually reach full autonomy, but added, “It will take longer than many believe…It’s probably going to be a decade before we see fully autonomous vehicles in the mass market, particularly since the testing of the accuracy is so hard to do, and any accident sets them back a long time.”
Sven Beiker will join other experts on Monday at an all-day workshop, “Auto Tech—Driving Automotive Technology Forward.” It is being held at the opening of Sensors Converge 2024 in Santa Clara, CA. Registration is available online.Save $200 off conference passes or a Free Expo pass with the code BEFIERCE.