Why is the NBA, a league that is flush with talent as much as it ever has been, experiencing declining ratings this season? Everyone seems to have a theory.
Many have accused teams of not playing defense anymore simply because scoring is a lot higher than it was less than a decade ago. Plenty feel it is because of the explosion of 3-point shooting and because teams simply attempt too many of them. Some have pointed out how many teams seem to run the same offensive sequences, especially to initiate their halfcourt sets.
Some have even blamed Los Angeles Lakers superstar LeBron James for ushering in the era of the “superteam” and feel today’s stars and superstars just don’t want to compete against each other.
Lakers head coach JJ Redick pushed back on the nation that offenses have become too homogenized when he gave his opinions on this issue.
“I was hoping I wouldn’t have to provide takes anymore. I’ll try to be brief. I said the other night, I don’t think the league is as homogenized as a lot of people make it out to be. There are certain rosters and certain players that because of their skillset, it makes sense to shoot a lot of 3s. What I think gets lost a little bit in the amount of 3-point attempts is what has been taken away, which is a steady decline in long 2s. What, I checked this last year so don’t quote me on this, but what has increased along with 3-point volume is points in the paint. So the 3 has allowed more space for people to actually score at the rim and score in the paint, so that’s the strategy.”
Through Thursday, teams are averaging 37.6 3-point attempts a game, which is easily an all-time high. Last season, they were at 35.1 a game, and just 10 seasons ago, teams took “only” 22.4 treys per game. At the same time, overall shooting percentages have also increased over the last several years, which seems to support what Redick said about points in the paint going up due to defenses getting sucked toward the 3-point line.
Redick pointed out the proliferation of streaming services and the increasing trend of people “cutting the cord” as a factor in the NBA’s disappointing ratings while giving a personal example.
“In terms of the ratings there’s a lot of probably whys. I would speculate some of it is streaming. Some of it is the fact that in my own household we have YouTube TV and we don’t have Spectrum right now. We have Spectrum wi-fi, but not the Spectrum cable and my family can’t watch Lakers games that aren’t nationally televised. I do have a free account from Spectrum I’m just too lazy to set it up. Clear on that, Spectrum has been very good to me, but my point to that is in my own household I have nine or 10 subscriptions. I lose my password to all of these. I think with the death of cable, people unplugging and then relying on streaming networks, I think it’s not easy to watch an NBA game, to find an NBA game, I think that’s part of it. Maybe that’s a small percentage of it, but that’s certainly a factor in all of this.”
The coach also feels that the continued complaints about the way the NBA game is played today and the lack of compliments for the improvements that have taken place over the years are another factor in the league’s depressed ratings.
“And I’ve told Adam [Silver] this and I’ll say this again: I don’t think we as, and by we I was part of it, we as the sort of national partners have done a good job of storytelling, of celebrating the game. If I’m a casual fan and you tell me every time I turn on the television that the product sucks, well, I’m not going to watch the product. And that’s really what has happened over the last 10 to 15 years. I don’t know why. It’s not funny to me. Nothing is entertaining to me. This game should be celebrated. I’ve watched the league evolve. I’m in this league right now. I can tell you without fact, or with fact, that the league is more talented and not just raw talent. The league is more talented and skilled than it was 18 years ago when I was drafted. That’s a fact. There are more players that are excellent. There are more teams that are excellent. I heard when I played for, I don’t know four or five years, ‘Well, why do we even play the regular season? We know who’s going to be in the finals.’ Well, guess what? We have parity now, and we’re not celebrating parity. We’re not celebrating the fact that the Western Conference is as loaded as it is. We’re playing a Sacramento team tonight that’s incredible, with incredible talent, and they’ve got a losing record (13-14). It’s not because they’re a bad basketball team. I don’t know. We don’t have anybody that’s willing to step up to the fact that this is an awesome game and we should talk about it and celebrate it in a positive way. That doesn’t mean we don’t critique it. We should critique it, but we should celebrate it. Nobody’s doing that, and the people that are have a small niche following on Twitter. And frankly, I would argue as well, that everyone in our ecosystem pays too much attention to what is said on Twitter. And part of this whole ratings discussion is because people on Twitter are talking about it.”
Teams are averaging 113.1 points a game this season, and last season, the league average was 114.2 points a game. As recently as seven seasons ago, teams put up 106.3 points a game, and exactly 10 seasons ago, they mustered only 100.0 points per contest.
The first instinct is to say that such an increase in scoring can only happen because teams don’t play defense anymore, when in fact the increase has occurred because of an immense increase in pace and transition opportunities, as well as improved 3-point shooting. This change in basketball ideology has taken place thanks in part to teams such as the Golden State Warriors, a squad that won four NBA championships playing pace-and-space basketball.
As recently as the early 2010s, very few people thought a team could win the world title by playing fast-break basketball and using the 3-point shot as its chief weapon offensively.
Objectively, although it undoubtedly has issues, the NBA’s product is in a very good place right now. The onus is on fans and pundits to recognize this fact and publicly acknowledge it.