For retailers of all types, the winter holidays are the most wonderful time of year. In 2023 alone, the National Retail Federation (NRF) expects shoppers will spend around $900 (£743) each on purchases for Hanukkah, Kwanzaa, Christmas and other end-of-year festivities. That includes candy – arguably the cornerstone of any good party.
Candy manufacturers and the retailers who sell it both bank on the winter holidays as major earnings seasons. At Hershey, the largest chocolate manufacturer in the world, the winter holidays, along with Halloween and Easter, drive a quarter of its business. Months before Wham!’s Last Christmas dominates the airwaves, retailers and holiday confectioners have signed agreements to produce and sell mountains of candy. It’s an all-in bet – anything that isn’t sold is an expensive loss for both sides.
As retailers of all stripes compete for holiday-season sales, one of the easiest ways to rake in profits amid the cacophony of their rivals’ advertising, promotions and sales is to start selling just a little earlier. “When one retailer starts selling Christmas candy early, then the others follow suit to remain competitive,” says Jason Dubroy, a Toronto-based independent retail analyst, “because nobody wants to lose customer visits to people that are offering holiday stuff in advance.”
And as much as some shoppers complain about seeing candy canes on the shelves when Halloween decorations are still up, experts and retail data suggest the tactic works.
‘Christmas creep’
Some retailers don’t even wait until 1 November to pack their shelves with chocolate oranges, red-and-green sweets, Hanukkah gelt and other seasonal products.
“People have said to me that Christmas things have been in some shops since September,” says Isabelle Szmigin, professor of marketing at the University of Birmingham, UK. “It’s not like the shelves are half-Halloween and half-Christmas, but it’s the start of the nudge.”
Christmas candy often hits shelves the minute Halloween wraps up (Credit: Getty Images)
Unlike the latest hot toy, holiday candy is inexpensive, even during a period of high inflation and steep interest rates – and Dubroy says many people may be stocking up on treats in lieu of pricier buys this year. At low price points, it can generate volume all season: shoppers can easily snag a box of marshmallow Santas in November, go through it all in a few weeks (or perhaps days) and end up having to return to a store to stock up for the winter season’s holiday parties.
It becomes a cycle – one confectioners count on to pad their season’s profits. “Having it on display triggers this subconscious cue for physical availability,” says Dubroy. Shoppers aren’t just reminded that the holidays are coming up – they also feel they can keep going back for more.
And even if people may complain about the onslaught of holiday goods, data shows they like to shop early. The NRF’s report showed around 43% of holiday shoppers generally start buying before November.
Phil Rist, executive vice-president of strategy at Ohio, US-based research firm Prosper, saysin an NRF statement that an early start lets shoppers spread out their budget throughout several months rather than spending all at once, avoid the stress of last-minute shopping and steer clear of the hordes of late shoppers. Early shopping is becoming more common: this year, adds Rist. According to an NRF survey on holiday shopping, conducted by Prosper,as many as 70% of shoppers are mulling October sales to pick up holiday gifts, decor, and other items on their list.
Stocking up
Retailers also stock the shelves so early for logistical reasons. Dubroy says businesses negotiate deals with confectioners for candy anywhere from six months to a year in advance. Ordering in bulk to a warehouse, then shipping it out in increments to stores between November and Christmas, is an efficient way of ensuring a steady stream of sweets.
The very quick transition between Halloween and Christmas sales is also about retail display space. In North America, says Dubroy, confectioners pay retailers for the privilege of selling their candy on store shelves. Not all positions in a store are equal. A shelf at the front of the store, or at eye level, drives higher sales than a section at the very back of aisle six. “That sort of becomes their real estate,” he says, “as long as they can maintain the integrity of those displays and merchandising over time.”
That means, whenever possible, keeping the holiday spirit flowing without interruption between Halloween and Christmas. For manufacturers, it ensures a steady stream of sales. For retailers, the quick switch-up lets them refresh their store layouts and displays without losing out on holiday sales volumes.
Companies are increasing bringing out Christmas items earlier and earlier (Credit: Getty Images)
Dubroy says this is especially true with discount stores, where seasonal shelves for Halloween, Christmas, Valentine’s Day and Easter goodies are constantly being swapped out.
In many ways, say experts, holiday sales are also a zero-sum game among confectioners. A square metre of shelf space Hershey secures is one Mars can’t, for instance. “If you can persuade your retailers to stock your Christmas candy – again, you’re taking up that shelf space,” says Szmigin.
Christmas in the fall
Because of how saturated holiday sales are around the holidays, the only real way to outdo the competition is to keep pushing the holiday season back earlier and earlier.
Will the Christmas creep get earlier and earlier as the years go on? Experts are divided. Deborah Weinswig, founder and CEO of New York-based Coresight Research, believes the holiday shopping season could turn into a three-month window in the future.
“I expect it to be pulled forward as early as the beginning of October,” she says. This would not only help retailers better control their supply chains, but also ensure goods are in front of shoppers early enough for them to make an informed decision about what to buy for the holidays.
On the other hand, Duboy believes retailers will take care not to mix up Halloween and the winter holidays too much. Shoppers, marketers, and buying teams are all trying to hit their carefully curated merchandising plans out of the park every time. “The more confusion that you add in by blurring individual seasonal thematics,” he says, “the harder it is to do that.”