The men’s college basketball season doesn’t tip-off for a few more days, and the Final Four won’t be played until early April in Phoenix. But it’s never too early for championship predictions. Our senior basketball writers, Seth Davis and Jeff Goodman, pick the teams they think will make it to the Arizona desert — and who will win it all.
Jeff Goodman’s Final Four
Duke
The Blue Devils have everything for the most part: Experience, talent, balance, shooting, quality point guard play and enough size. They return a couple of legit All-American candidates in Kyle Filipowski and Tyrese Proctor, and they bring back experience with Jeremy Roach and reserve big man Ryan Young. Toss in Mark Mitchell as a glue guy and a talented freshmen class with four top-50 players and Jon Scheyer has everything he needs at his disposal. The most important thing for Scheyer is to keep Filipowski healthy.
Michigan State
Tom Izzo with veteran perimeter players who have enough talent and continuity should scare the rest of the country. Tyson Walker emerged as a go-to guy last season, and now the addition of talented, tough freshman point guard Jeremy Fears gives Izzo the option to sit A.J. Hoggard if necessary. Jaden Akins should take another step now that he’s healthy, and the only true concern is in the middle — but there’s enough there between Mady Sissoko, Jaxon Kohler, Carson Cooper and even talented frosh Xavier Booker, who may not quite be ready for extended minutes.
Villanova
I know he isn’t coaching the team, but just imagine if Jay Wright were still coaching this group. Plenty of people would have picked them to go to the Final Four. Kyle Neptune didn’t have the talent a year ago and was unfairly judged. The Wildcats bring back a healthy Justin Moore and a veteran big man in Eric Dixon, and they add three veteran transfers who have been productive in their previous spots: TJ Bamba (Washington State), Tyler Burton (Richmond) and Hakim Hart (Maryland). The key may be whether Mark Armstrong can turn into a reliable point guard, because that would allow Moore to focus more on scoring.
Saint Mary’s
Give me Randy Bennett with a backcourt of Aidan Mahaney and Augustus Marciolionis, and veterans Alex Ducas and Mitchell Saxen up front. Mahaney is coming off a terrific freshman campaign while Marciolionis is primed for a break-out year. Saxen averaged 11.6 points and 7.6 boards last season, and Ducas is a stretch forward who shot 41% from 3 and enters his fifth season in Moraga. The key will be the supporting cast, but this is an experienced group that could wind up winning the WCC.
National Champ
I’m going with Duke in Scheyer’s second season at the helm. Proctor is going to become one of the best all-around players in the country, Filipowski is a tough matchup, and the Blue Devils just don’t have a ton of holes. They can withstand off-nights from just about anyone and still have enough depth to withstand it.
Seth Davis’s Final Four
Kansas
If Bill Self didn’t experience the heart issue that kept him from coaching in the postseason, we could very well be asking ourselves whether the Jayhawks will repeat as NCAA champs. KU didn’t get to claim the trophy, but Self did get two huge wins during the offseason when Hunter Dickinson transferred in and Kevin McCullar Jr., my All-Glue captain, decided to return. Throw in a savvy point guard in Dajuan Harris and a sharp shooting transfer in Nick Timberlake, and you have the makings of a team that will end its season in Phoenix. I never thought the specter of NCAA penalties bothered this coach or this program, but now that the interminable infractions case is over, Self can go about his business with a free spirit, which is bad news for the Big 12 and the rest of the country.
Duke
There is lots of attention being paid to Jon Scheyer’s recruiting — and rightly so — but this is a team that returns a veteran core as well as an old but valuable reserve in Ryan Young. Most of the top players who withdrew from the draft and returned to college did so because they weren’t going to get picked, but Kyle Filipowski is one of the few who turned down the chance to be a first-rounder. I expect him to be much improved, and the duo of Jeremy Roch and Tyrese Proctor is arguably the best backcourt tandem in the country. Scheyer has the nation’s top-ranked recruiting class, but he won’t have to rely too heavily on the youngsters, especially at the start. That’s the perfect blend of talent and experience.
Michigan State
If it’s March, I’m taking Tom Izzo. Much like Duke, the Spartans have a terrific combination of young talent and veteran guile. I’m especially looking forward to what a healthy Jaden Akins can do. Izzo has lots of experience on the perimeter with Tyson Walker running the point, and a serviceable big man in Mady Sissoko. And it’s only a matter of time until the freshmen are ready to earn some major minutes, which means lots of Coen Carr highlights in your social media feeds.
Tennessee
Maybe I’m overreacting to the Vols’ win in East Lansing during that exhibition, but they sure looked like a Final Four team. And that was without their starting backcourt of Zakai Zeigler (ACL) and Santiago Vescovi (visiting his family in Uruguay). We knew that Dalton Knecht put up a lot of points at Northern Colorado, but he showed against Michigan State that he has the potential to be a big-time scorer in the SEC. We’re used to Rick Barnes’ teams playing lockdown D while struggling on offense, but this Tennessee squad is capable of getting lots of buckets. Barnes hasn’t been to a Final Four since he took Texas there in 2003. Twenty-one years later, he’s going back.
National Champ
Duke. It’s unfortunate that the Blue Devils’ championship hopes are officially extinguished now that Goodman and I are both picking them, but as I said, no team in the country has a better combination of talent and experience. Scheyer is only 36 and his head-coaching career is just getting started, but he has already demonstrated that he is wise beyond his years. I’m not saying he’s going to win five championships like Coach K did, but he’s well-positioned to win his first this season.