Beyond their two longest-tenured players, Aaron Nola and Rhys Hoskins, the Phillies have two more free agents in Craig Kimbrel and Michael Lorenzen, plus another virtual lock in Scott Kingery, whose contract can be bought out for $1 million.
The Phillies’ primary objective this offseason is to re-sign Nola or identify his replacement. The Hoskins situation is heavily dependent on if Bryce Harper feels ready to return to right field 15 or so months after undergoing Tommy John surgery or if now is his time to shift to first base.
It’s a bit of an awkward spot for Harper, whose own positional preference will go a long way in determining for the Phillies whether the decision with Hoskins is straightforward, or whether retaining him and shopping Nick Castellanos makes more sense.
• Kimbrel seems unlikely to return even though the Phillies still need right-handed late-inning relief help. He signed a one-year, $10 million contract and was effective for a majority of the regular season but had a pair of costly meltdowns in the NLCS that resulted in Phillies losses in Games 3 and 4 of a series they had led 2-0. Kimbrel was an All-Star as a Phillie, earned career save No. 400 as a Phillie and was a teammate the rest of the bullpen gravitated toward and learned from, but there may be too much baggage with this particular closer given how 2023 ended for the Phils.
• Lorenzen also seems likely to find a better fit elsewhere. The Phillies return four-fifths of their starting rotation in Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suarez, Taijuan Walker and Cristopher Sanchez. The other spot would go to Nola or an external acquisition who profiles as a No. 1 or 2 starter. Lorenzen will want more of a guaranteed rotation spot than the Phillies will likely be able to offer. They were interested in him last winter but it was a similar situation with him wanting to start and finding that opportunity with the Tigers.
• Kingery just finished the final guaranteed year of the six-year, $24M contract he signed prior to 2018. The Phillies hold a club option on him for 2024 at $13 million but will buy it out for $1 million as he searches for a change of scenery.
Arbitration guys
Free agents aside, the Phillies have eight players eligible for salary arbitration. The only one going through the process for the final time is 2023 revelation Jeff Hoffman. It will be arbitration year 2 of 3 for Ranger Suarez, Gregory Soto, Jake Cave and Dylan Covey. The first-timers are Alec Bohm, Edmundo Sosa and Garrett Stubbs.
From the above group of eight, the Phillies could choose to not offer a contract to Cave, Covey or potentially Stubbs ahead of the November 17 non-tender deadline.
The Phils should be able to find a bench outfielder more productive than Cave, less expensive than the $1.25M or so he’d cost, or both.
Covey was not on the playoff roster but remained in the Phillies’ organization after being selected on waivers on May 20. He pitched in low-leverage situations and had a 3.69 ERA as a Phillie, allowing just one run in his final 12 innings. Teams are so obsessed with maintaining any form of stamina or length on their pitching staffs that the Phils could keep Covey around if the cost is in the $900,000 range. That’s not a lock, however, because he’s out of minor-league options.
Also out of minor-league options is catcher Rafael Marchan, which could spell the end of Stubbs’ time as the Phillies’ backup catcher if they deem the oft-injured Marchan ready. In 207 plate appearances at Triple A this season, Marchan hit .297/.391/.440.
If arbitration-eligible players and their teams have not agreed to a contract by January 12, they must both put forth a salary figure for the upcoming season and a hearing is scheduled between January 29 and February 16. If they still can’t come to an agreement by the time of the hearing, a panel of arbitrators listens to each side’s case and then selects one of the two salary figures as the player’s salary for the upcoming season.