After last night’s wimpy wimpy wimpy slate of two games, we have a hefty hefty hefty 11-gamer tonight. The prospects for lineup shenanigans are high because of the multitude of injuries and back-to-backs. That means there should be plenty of value popping up. CHA, CHI, MIL, NOP, NYK and SAS all play on Saturday as well. Keep track of all the injury updates at DK Live.
Here are the big names who are questionable:
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,100) – If he’s out, then Damian Lillard ($9,800) is a must-play. Andre Jackson Jr. ($3,600) received the start last game.
Joel Embiid ($11,400) – Paul Reed ($4,000) would likely start while Tyrese Maxey ($9,100) would see a massive usage bump increase. Tobias Harris ($6,300) also becomes interesting.
LeBron James ($9,900) – Rui Hachimura ($4,700) would likely get the start. D’Angelo Russell ($7,100) and Austin Reaves ($6,100) see the biggest usage bumps while Anthony Davis ($10,100) went for 62.25 DKFP the last time LeBron was out.
Jaylen Brown ($7,800) and Kristaps Porzingis ($7,400) – Al Horford ($5,500) and Sam Hauser ($4,600) got the start for them last game.
Darius Garland ($7,200) – Garland has missed five games this season. Dean Wade ($3,400) has started but isn’t viable. Donovan Mitchell ($9,500) and Caris LeVert ($6,900) are the beneficiaries.
Donovan Mitchell ($9,500) – Both Garland and Mitchell have been out together in one game. LeVert went for 52.25 DKFP in that one.
DeMar DeRozan ($7,500) – Patrick Williams ($4,600) got the start last game.
DraftKings Sportsbook has four games with a total of at least 235 – MIL/CHA (239(, SAC/SAS (239), PHI/ATL (236.5) and PHO/UTA (237.5). There are two games below 220 – ORL/CHI (215.5) and HOU/LAC (219.5).
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Guard
Stud
Damian Lillard, Milwaukee Bucks at Charlotte Hornets ($9,800) – If Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,100) plays, then I will pivot off Lillard. Giannis missed the last game due to a calf injury and the Bucks play a back-to-back here, so the probabilities are elevated that he sits. With Giannis off the court this season, Lillard has seen a 6.32% usage bump to 36.81%. With Giannis out last game, Lillard garnered a massive 42.3% usage rate and put up 67 DKFP. MIL is 8th in pace while CHA is seventh. In addition, CHA is dead-last in defensive efficiency and has boosted the FPPM to point guards by 7.99%.
Other Options – LaMelo Ball ($10,200), Devin Booker ($10,000), Trae Young ($9,200), De’Aaron Fox ($9,000), D’Angelo Russell ($7,100), Caris LeVert ($6,900), Jordan Clarkson ($6,800), Austin Reaves ($6,100)
Value
Cam Reddish, Los Angeles Lakers at Portland Trail Blazers ($4,800) – Am I crazy about this play? I am not, especially since most of Reddish’s value derives from steals, which is such a variable stat. That said, over the last five games, Reddish has racked up three, three, three, zero and five steals. Portland is 25th in turnovers per game and has boosted steals to shooting guards by a whopping 50.93% on the season. Reddish can score as well, posting double-digit points in each of the last four games. Reddish was known as a prolific offensive player in high school so he does know how to get buckets. Regardless, the most important thing is that Reddish is starting and playing around 30 minutes per game.
Other Options – Kevin Huerter ($5,900), Keyonte George ($5,400), Reggie Jackson ($5,000), Alec Burks ($4,900)
Forward
Stud
Julius Randle, New York Knicks at Washington Wizards ($8,800) – There was a three-game stretch earlier in the season that caused the streets of Gotham to echo with the moans, groans and clanks after every Randle shot. He shot 4-of-15, 5-of-14 and 3-of-15 during that span, resulting in 20, 38.5 and 28.5 DKFP. He then converted only 5-of-20 and 9-of-21 field goal attempts in the next two games but contributed in the periphery categories to post 44 DKFP in each contest. In the four most recent games, Randle has put it all together, converting 44% of his field goal attempts while grabbing rebounds and dishing out dimes. That has resulted in 58, 43.25, 41.75 and 54 DKFP. The trend is our friend, and our friend should continue to lead us to a happy place as Friday’s opponent is the Wizards, a team that is first in pace, 26th in defensive efficiency and has boosted the FPPM to power forwards by 6.94%.
Other Options – Jayson Tatum ($10,300), Kevin Durant ($9,700), Victor Wembanyama ($8,700), Ausar Thompson ($7,400), Aaron Gordon ($6,600), Tobias Harris ($6,300), John Collins ($6,200)
Value
Robert Covington, Philadelphia 76ers at Atlanta Hawks ($4,500) – With Kelly Oubre Jr. and Nicolas Batum out on Wednesday, Covington got the start and played 37 minutes. He contributed 16 points, six rebounds and two steals. That was good for 27.5 DKFP. Both Oubre and Batum are out again on Friday, so Covington should get the start and play a similar amount of minutes.
Other Options – Miles Bridges ($5,300), Bilal Coulibaly ($4,800), Cam Reddish ($4,800), Rui Hachimura ($4,700) if LeBron is out, Ochai Agbaji ($4,000)
Center
Studs
Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans ($12,500) – Jokic is the most expensive player on the slate, and for good reason, as he has the highest floor/ceiling combo. He’s a threat to triple-double on any given night and has gone for at least 60 DKFP in each of the last six games with a 79 and 84.75 game included in there. In a vacuum, he’s always the best play on the slate, but we operate in a salary-cap world. Value will likely pop up throughout the day as players get ruled out, so there will likely be ways to fit Jokic into lineups. Then it comes down to roster construction.
Other Options – Joel Embiid ($11,400), Anthony Davis ($10,100), Domantas Sabonis ($10,000), Alperen Sengun ($7,700)
Value
Mitchell Robinson, New York Knicks at Washington Wizards ($5,500) – Sauntering through Mr. Robinson’s neighborhood can be an adventure, as foul trouble or Thibanigans pollute the water. Recently, though, he’s played at least 31 minutes in four of the last five games. He rarely scores points but is a beast on the glass and will rack up defensive stats. Friday’s environment could be one with plenty of possessions for fantasy goodies. Washington plays fast and has boosted the FPPM to centers by 12.27%, with big boosts for points and rebounds.
Other Options – Al Horford ($5,500) if Porzingis is out, Ivica Zubac ($5,500), Goga Bitadze ($5,300), Robert Covington ($4,500), Paul Reed ($4,000) if Embiid is out
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.