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Fantasy basketball tips and projections for Saturday

  • Jim McCormick, Special to ESPN.comNov 18, 2023, 12:00 PM ET

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      Jim McCormick is a fantasy football and fantasy basketball analyst for ESPN.com.

ESPN’s fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data, featuring ESPN’s proprietary Basketball Power Index (BPI) to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. Fantasy advice is based on ESPN 10-team leagues.

New this season, ESPN Analytics will also generate daily NBA fantasy projections. By combining historical player and team data and specific game factors ESPN is able to accurately predict player box score stats. Accounting for injuries, trends in playing time, and other factors impacting future performance the statistical models can be used to help NBA fantasy players gain an edge in their league.

What you need to know for Saturday’s games

The NBA marathon continued on Friday evening, with some notable fantasy outcomes worth recalling.

Let’s begin with everyone’s favorite team, the Washington Wizards, and their ascendant young forward Deni Avdija; he poured in 18 points and a full line in a loss to the New York Knicks. The team isn’t very good, but this combo forward is starting to matter as a statistical contributor. Avdija is a free agent in 70% of ESPN men’s basketball leagues.

Another name of note is found on the San Antonio Spurs; the Zach Collins breakout is here. He’s rostered in just half of leagues, but is producing in nearly every relevant category as the frontcourt mate to Victor Wembanyama. Get him on your roster(s) before it’s too late. One more notable outcome was Jonathan Isaac (11.2% rostered) flashing for the Orlando Magic. It’s hard to buy in given the playing time issues, but he sure can fill a box score for those in deeper leagues or with deep benches.

Pivoting to Saturday’s six-game slate, it opens with the New York Knicks in North Carolina to face the Charlotte Hornets as sizable favorites. While the game itself doesn’t merit a ton of intrigue, the fact that both Gordon Hayward and Mark Williams are still free agents in a third of ESPN leagues reveals some fantasy value in the contest.

Even at 2-9, the Memphis Grizzlies are slight favorites on the road to face the San Antonio Spurs. The injury report remains full of frontcourt players for Memphis, signaling some streaming interest in a Grizzlies center we feature in the section below.

We have enough of a sample to declare the Oklahoma City Thunder as a good team; ranking in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency as they again are poised as road favorites over the Golden State Warriors. The big news is Stephen Curry being upgraded to questionable, as he’s also sort of good.

The marquee game from a statistical and matchup perspective is the Dallas Mavericks visiting the Milwaukee Bucks in a game that features a season-high total of 246.5 points. No really. Find as many paths to this game as possible in both streaming and DFS regards. We focus on one white-hot shooter from Dallas below.

Saturday’s stream team

Tim Hardaway Jr., SG/SF, Mavericks (27.5%): The definition of a bucket, “THJ” is splashing the net often lately. He just posted 31 points against the Wizards and next up is a Bucks team, in a game with that wild total, that simply doesn’t have the perimeter defense of the past few seasons. This is the type of streaming selection that might even stick on your roster.

Bismack Biyombo, C, Grizzlies (21.7%): The Grizzlies simply need Biyombo’s size on the defensive glass and around the rim and also his vertical roll-man role on offense. Foul trouble is a real thing with him, but so are double-doubles.

Jonathan Kuminga, SF/PF, Warriors (15.5%): The suspension-driven absence of Draymond Green means this young forward is going to be on the court often tonight against a fast and undersized Thunder roster. After all, he just posted a nice line against OKC the last time out.

Dario Saric, PF, Warriors (rostered in 8.1% of ESPN leagues): Another Green-related endorsement finds Saric worthy of interest on a uniquely light weekend slate. The thing with Saric is that he doesn’t need his shot to fall to help your fantasy roster, as his rebounding and assist rates are relatively stable and needed in this matchup.

Jaime Jaquez Jr., SF, Heat (8.3%): I can’t say, as a Sixers fan, that I love admitting this, but the Heat just know how to find and develop talent. That said, “JJJ” is another in this line of development, as the UCLA product is earning big minutes sans Tyler Herro from the rotation and merits interest ahead of tonight’s matchup with the Bulls.

Projections and injury reports

Fantasy projections powered by ESPN Analytics.* Projections assume all players who are listed as GTD will play. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com. Players available in at least 50% of ESPN leagues are listed in italics.

New York Knicks at Charlotte Hornets
6 ET, Spectrum Center, Charlotte, North Carolina

BPI Projection: Knicks by 4.1 in the fourth-highest-scoring game of the slate.

Injury report:
Knicks: Quentin Grimes, (GTD – Hand); RJ Barrett, (GTD – Illness)
Hornets: James Bouknight, (GTD – Knee); Terry Rozier, (GTD – Groin); Frank Ntilikina, (OUT – Lower Leg); Cody Martin, (OUT – Knee)

Knicks projections:

  • Jalen Brunson, PG/SG: 41.3 FPTS (26.6 pts, 3.5 reb, 4.6 ast, 2.3 3PM)

  • Julius Randle, PF: 40.3 FPTS (22.4 pts, 9.3 reb, 5.5 ast, 2.2 3PM)

  • Josh Hart, SG/SF: 25.0 FPTS (10.2 pts, 6.2 reb, 2.5 ast)

  • Immanuel Quickley, PG/SG: 24.5 FPTS (12.9 pts, 2.9 reb, 3.1 ast)

  • Mitchell Robinson, C: 22.8 FPTS (8.6 pts, 9.3 reb, 0.9 ast, 1.3 blk)

  • Donte DiVincenzo, SG: 14.4 FPTS (7.1 pts, 2.4 reb, 1.4 ast)

  • Quentin Grimes, SG: 14.1 FPTS (6.7 pts, 1.6 reb, 1.1 ast, 1.9 3PM)

Hornets projections:

  • LaMelo Ball, PG/SG: 42.8 FPTS (23.4 pts, 5.4 reb, 7.6 ast, 3.0 3PM)

  • Gordon Hayward, SF: 33.6 FPTS (17.9 pts, 4.5 reb, 4.8 ast)

  • P.J. Washington, PF: 27.0 FPTS (15.3 pts, 4.5 reb, 2.2 ast)

  • Mark Williams, C: 26.9 FPTS (13.9 pts, 8.8 reb, 1.1 ast)

  • Brandon Miller, SG/SF: 18.3 FPTS (10.6 pts, 6.1 reb, 1.2 ast)

  • Nick Richards, C: 16.8 FPTS (8.5 pts, 6.2 reb, 0.8 ast, 1.3 blk)

  • Theo Maledon, PG: 16.7 FPTS (8.6 pts, 2.8 reb, 2.5 ast)

Minnesota Timberwolves at New Orleans Pelicans
7 ET, Smoothie King Center, New Orleans

BPI Projection: Timberwolves by 2.9 in the fifth-highest-scoring game of the slate.

Injury report:
Timberwolves: Jaylen Clark, (OUT – Achilles); Jordan McLaughlin, (OUT – Knee)
Pelicans: Jose Alvarado, (GTD – Ankle); CJ McCollum, (OUT – Chest); Trey Murphy III, (OUT – Knee); Larry Nance Jr., (OUT – Ribs)

Timberwolves projections:

  • Anthony Edwards, SG/SF: 43.8 FPTS (26.3 pts, 5.7 reb, 5.4 ast, 2.4 3PM)

  • Karl-Anthony Towns, PF/C: 36.9 FPTS (21.2 pts, 9.2 reb, 2.6 ast, 2.0 3PM)

  • Rudy Gobert, C: 28.8 FPTS (14.2 pts, 12.7 reb, 1.4 ast, 1.8 blk)

  • Mike Conley, PG: 23.4 FPTS (8.8 pts, 2.9 reb, 4.3 ast)

  • Naz Reid, PF/C: 18.7 FPTS (10.7 pts, 3.6 reb, 1.0 ast)

  • Kyle Anderson, SF/PF: 16.3 FPTS (6.2 pts, 3.2 reb, 3.4 ast)

  • Jaden McDaniels, SF: 13.5 FPTS (6.9 pts, 2.2 reb, 1.0 ast)

Pelicans projections:

  • Brandon Ingram, SF/PF: 43.9 FPTS (25.9 pts, 5.8 reb, 5.7 ast)

  • Zion Williamson, PF: 36.7 FPTS (23.7 pts, 6.6 reb, 4.5 ast)

  • Dyson Daniels, PG/SG: 25.7 FPTS (10.7 pts, 5.8 reb, 3.0 ast)

  • Jonas Valanciunas, C: 25.7 FPTS (12.1 pts, 9.1 reb, 1.6 ast)

  • Herbert Jones, SF/PF: 23.8 FPTS (10.7 pts, 4.1 reb, 2.0 ast)

  • Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, PF/C: 15.2 FPTS (7.0 pts, 3.9 reb, 1.0 ast)

  • Naji Marshall, SF: 10.5 FPTS (4.5 pts, 1.9 reb, 1.4 ast)

Miami Heat at Chicago Bulls
8 ET, United Center, Chicago

BPI Projection: Heat by 3.4 in the sixth-highest-scoring game of the slate.

Injury report:
Heat: Tyler Herro, (OUT – Ankle); R.J. Hampton, (OUT – Knee)
Bulls: Lonzo Ball, (OUT – Knee); Dalen Terry, (GTD – Kneecap)

Heat projections:

  • Bam Adebayo, C: 43.4 FPTS (23.0 pts, 11.3 reb, 4.1 ast, 1.3 blk)

  • Jimmy Butler, SF/PF: 37.7 FPTS (21.6 pts, 5.9 reb, 4.1 ast)

  • Duncan Robinson, SG/SF: 26.6 FPTS (13.9 pts, 3.4 reb, 2.4 ast, 2.8 3PM)

  • Haywood Highsmith, SF: 19.9 FPTS (8.9 pts, 3.2 reb, 1.4 ast)

  • Kyle Lowry, PG: 19.3 FPTS (5.4 pts, 3.5 reb, 4.0 ast)

  • Caleb Martin, SG/SF: 18.1 FPTS (8.8 pts, 4.1 reb, 1.1 ast)

  • Josh Richardson, SG/SF: 16.6 FPTS (7.5 pts, 2.3 reb, 2.3 ast)

Bulls projections:

  • DeMar DeRozan, SG/SF: 38.2 FPTS (22.8 pts, 2.9 reb, 4.2 ast)

  • Nikola Vucevic, C: 37.8 FPTS (17.5 pts, 10.7 reb, 3.0 ast)

  • Zach LaVine, SG/SF: 37.8 FPTS (22.0 pts, 4.5 reb, 3.4 ast, 2.5 3PM)

  • Coby White, PG/SG: 27.5 FPTS (12.5 pts, 2.9 reb, 4.1 ast, 1.8 3PM)

  • Alex Caruso, PG/SG: 18.5 FPTS (6.8 pts, 3.4 reb, 2.0 ast)

  • Torrey Craig, SF/PF: 15.5 FPTS (5.8 pts, 4.5 reb, 1.3 ast)

  • Patrick Williams, SF/PF: 14.0 FPTS (6.7 pts, 2.8 reb, 1.1 ast)

Dallas Mavericks at Milwaukee Bucks
8 ET, Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee

BPI Projection: Bucks by 1.9 in the highest-scoring game of the slate.

Injury report:
Mavericks: Maxi Kleber, (OUT – Toe)
Bucks: Jae Crowder, (OUT – Groin); Chris Livingston, (GTD – Ankle); MarJon Beauchamp, (GTD – Ankle)

Mavericks projections:

  • Luka Doncic, PG: 50.8 FPTS (31.1 pts, 7.6 reb, 7.3 ast, 3.7 3PM)

  • Kyrie Irving, PG/SG: 39.4 FPTS (21.2 pts, 4.2 reb, 5.7 ast, 2.5 3PM)

  • Tim Hardaway Jr., SG/SF: 22.1 FPTS (12.9 pts, 3.4 reb, 1.2 ast, 2.7 3PM)

  • Grant Williams, PF: 18.2 FPTS (9.8 pts, 3.8 reb, 0.8 ast, 2.0 3PM)

  • Derrick Jones Jr., SF: 17.0 FPTS (8.8 pts, 3.6 reb, 1.0 ast)

  • Josh Green, SG/SF: 16.4 FPTS (7.7 pts, 3.1 reb, 1.6 ast)

  • Jaden Hardy, SG: 15.3 FPTS (9.8 pts, 2.0 reb, 1.2 ast)

Bucks projections:

  • Giannis Antetokounmpo, PF/C: 51.3 FPTS (32.9 pts, 11.7 reb, 5.0 ast, 1.7 blk)

  • Damian Lillard, PG: 44.6 FPTS (28.8 pts, 5.1 reb, 5.6 ast, 2.9 3PM)

  • Bobby Portis, PF/C: 27.9 FPTS (15.4 pts, 7.8 reb, 1.3 ast)

  • Khris Middleton, SF: 24.7 FPTS (13.1 pts, 4.3 reb, 3.4 ast)

  • Brook Lopez, C: 20.3 FPTS (11.3 pts, 5.4 reb, 0.8 ast, 2.6 blk)

  • Malik Beasley, SG: 17.3 FPTS (8.1 pts, 3.4 reb, 1.1 ast, 1.8 3PM)

  • Pat Connaughton, SG/SF: 15.1 FPTS (6.6 pts, 3.1 reb, 1.7 ast)

Memphis Grizzlies at San Antonio Spurs
8 ET, Frost Bank Center, San Antonio

BPI Projection: Grizzlies by 3.5 in the third-highest-scoring game of the slate.

Injury report:
Grizzlies: Brandon Clarke, (OUT – Achilles); Steven Adams, (OUT – Knee); Derrick Rose, (GTD – Knee); Luke Kennard, (OUT – Knee); Xavier Tillman, (OUT – Knee); Marcus Smart, (OUT – Foot); Ja Morant, (OUT – Suspension)
Spurs: Devin Vassell, (GTD – Thigh); Tre Jones, (GTD – Hamstring)

Grizzlies projections:

  • Desmond Bane, SG/SF: 46.9 FPTS (28.7 pts, 5.0 reb, 5.0 ast, 3.7 3PM)

  • Jaren Jackson Jr., PF/C: 38.4 FPTS (25.1 pts, 7.1 reb, 2.6 ast, 1.9 3PM, 2.4 blk)

  • Bismack Biyombo, C: 20.8 FPTS (9.0 pts, 8.4 reb, 1.3 ast, 1.6 blk)

  • Santi Aldama, PF: 18.5 FPTS (9.9 pts, 4.6 reb, 1.3 ast)

  • David Roddy, PF: 17.8 FPTS (9.5 pts, 4.0 reb, 1.1 ast)

  • John Konchar, SG/SF: 13.0 FPTS (4.6 pts, 3.5 reb, 1.1 ast)

  • Ziaire Williams, SG: 12.6 FPTS (5.8 pts, 3.2 reb, 1.1 ast)

Spurs projections:

  • Keldon Johnson, SF: 33.8 FPTS (17.2 pts, 5.3 reb, 3.8 ast)

  • Victor Wembanyama, PF/C: 28.3 FPTS (15.9 pts, 9.4 reb, 1.5 ast)

  • Zach Collins, PF/C: 25.7 FPTS (12.9 pts, 5.8 reb, 3.3 ast)

  • Jeremy Sochan, PG/PF: 24.6 FPTS (11.2 pts, 5.5 reb, 3.6 ast)

  • Devin Vassell, SG/SF: 21.6 FPTS (11.5 pts, 2.6 reb, 2.2 ast, 1.8 3PM)

  • Malaki Branham, SG: 17.0 FPTS (9.5 pts, 1.8 reb, 2.1 ast)

  • Doug McDermott, SF: 14.6 FPTS (7.3 pts, 1.7 reb, 1.6 ast)

Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors
8:30 ET, Chase Center, San Francisco

BPI Projection: Warriors by 1 in the second-highest-scoring game of the slate.

Injury report:
Thunder: Cason Wallace, (GTD – Shoulder)
Warriors: Stephen Curry, (GTD – Knee); Gary Payton II, (OUT – Ankle); Draymond Green, (OUT – Suspension)

Thunder projections:

  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, PG/SG: 56.9 FPTS (28.4 pts, 6.6 reb, 5.7 ast)

  • Jalen Williams, SG/SF/PF: 28.5 FPTS (15.8 pts, 3.8 reb, 3.2 ast)

  • Chet Holmgren, PF/C: 26.1 FPTS (11.9 pts, 9.5 reb, 2.8 ast, 2.0 blk)

  • Josh Giddey, PG/SG/PF: 24.5 FPTS (11.1 pts, 5.2 reb, 4.4 ast)

  • Luguentz Dort, SG/SF: 22.2 FPTS (11.0 pts, 4.7 reb, 1.3 ast)

  • Kenrich Williams, SF: 17.6 FPTS (7.9 pts, 3.4 reb, 1.4 ast)

  • Cason Wallace, PG/SG: 15.7 FPTS (8.0 pts, 4.1 reb, 2.3 ast)

Warriors projections:

  • Stephen Curry, PG: 40.1 FPTS (25.0 pts, 4.4 reb, 4.4 ast, 4.7 3PM)

  • Chris Paul, PG: 28.6 FPTS (11.5 pts, 3.8 reb, 5.7 ast)

  • Dario Saric, PF: 25.3 FPTS (11.5 pts, 7.5 reb, 1.8 ast)

  • Klay Thompson, SG/SF: 23.8 FPTS (14.6 pts, 3.5 reb, 1.7 ast, 2.5 3PM)

  • Andrew Wiggins, SF/PF: 22.4 FPTS (14.5 pts, 4.6 reb, 1.3 ast)

  • Kevon Looney, PF/C: 20.9 FPTS (7.0 pts, 9.2 reb, 1.9 ast)

  • Jonathan Kuminga, PF: 16.4 FPTS (11.4 pts, 2.7 reb, 1.1 ast)

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