It’s crunch time for college football teams still hoping to clinch a bid to their respective conference championship games. As it turns out, though, there’s a lot of opportunity still out there. Entering the final regular-season weekend here in 2023, six title games at the FBS level remain unsettled. Some, like the Pac-12 and Big Ten, boast one team that has already qualified. Others, like the Big 12, have both slots to fill.
Here’s a quick look at the conference championship matchups that are already decided:
- ACC: Florida State vs. Louisville — Saturday, Dec. 2
- SEC: Georgia vs. Alabama — Saturday, Dec. 2 (4 p.m. ET on CBS)
- Conference USA: Liberty vs. New Mexico State — Friday, Dec. 1
- MAC: Miami OH (East) vs. Toledo (West) — Saturday, Dec. 2
Now, let’s take a look at all the scenarios that could play out in each of the conference races that remain open.
Big 12
This one could be as simple as Texas and Oklahoma State winning their regular-season finales. If the Longhorns are able to hold off Texas Tech and the Cowboys can avoid the home letdown against BYU, those two are in the Big 12 Championship Game.
The other two teams realistically in the running are Oklahoma and Kansas State. If those two finish with an identical conference record to Oklahoma State, the Pokes gets in based off head-to-head wins as the Cowboys are 2-0 against the Sooners and Wildcats.
Here’s what Oklahoma and Kansas State need to happen, respectively, in order to play for a Big 12 championship:
- Oklahoma: Win against TCU, Texas beats Texas Tech and Oklahoma State loses to BYU
- Kansas State: Win against Iowa State, Texas beats Texas Tech, Oklahoma State AND Oklahoma both lose
Those four aren’t the only programs left in the running. According to the Big 12, there are seven total teams that could still make the Big 12 Championship Game. But that involves a complex web of hypothetical tiebreakers that need not be discussed unless absolutely necessary.
For a full breakdown of the Big 12 drama that could play out, click here.
Big Ten
Iowa has already locked down its second Big Ten Championship Game appearance of the past three years. The Hawkeyes earned a berth in Week 12 with a 15-13 win against Illinois, battling through an injury-plagued season and coordinator controversy to emerge out of a heated Big Ten West race.
Iowa’s opponent will be decided Saturday as Michigan and Ohio State face off for the Big Ten East title. This will be the third straight season that the Wolverines and Buckeyes play for a chance at the Big Ten title game and likely College Football Playoff berth.
Pac-12
Washington has already secured its spot in the Pac-12 Championship Game. The Huskies beat Oregon State 22-20 last weekend to clinch their first appearance on the conference’s biggest stage since 2018.
Oregon can grab the second spot in the title game if it can close the regular season with a win against in-state rival Oregon State. The Ducks played in three straight Pac-12 Championship Games from 2019-21, but that streak was broken last season.
Arizona has a chance at the Pac-12 Championship Game, as well, but its fate isn’t in its own hands. The Wildcats need to win against Arizona State and they need Oregon State to beat Oregon. That would create a two-way tie between Oregon and Arizona for second place.
Those two did not play this year and have identical records against common opponents (6-2), meaning the Pac-12 would move to its third tiebreaker: winning percentage vs. common opponents based on the order of finish. The top common opponent in that scenario — excluding Washington, which both teams lost against — would be Oregon State. Arizona has a win against the Beavers, while Oregon would have a loss.
American
There is currently a three-way tie for first place in the American Athletic Conference. Tulane, SMU, and UTSA are all 7-0 in conference play. Luckily, at least one spot in the title game will be easy to decide. Tulane and UTSA are set to face off in the regular-season finale, and the winner will play in the AAC Championship Game. SMU closes its season against Navy, so if the Mustangs can avoid the upset, they’ll grab the second spot.
If SMU loses, that’s where things get more complex. That would mean SMU and either Tulane and UTSA are 7-1 in conference play without a head-to-head matchup to decide things, so the AAC would use a composite average of selected computer rankings to determine the second spot.
Mountain West
UNLV will host the Mountain West Championship Game if it can beat San Jose State. The Rebels would then play the winner between Boise State and Air Force for the conference title.
If San Jose State beats UNLV, that will create a three-way tie between those teams and the winner of Boise State-Air Force. In that case, Mountain West Championship Game participants would be decided by computer rankings — similar to the American Athletic Conference.
Sun Belt
The Sun Belt is one of a few conferences that still use divisions. Troy has already clinched the Sun Belt West with a 6-1 conference record, so it already has a spot in the title game. And though James Madison, with a 10-1 overall record and 6-1 Sun Belt showing, cannot participate in the conference championship due to NCAA bylaws, the Dukes do play an important role in how the Sun Belt East plays out.
Their game against Coastal Carolina Saturday could decide everything. Coastal Carolina can win the East with a victory against James Madison. The Chanticleers will also qualify for the Sun Belt Championship Game if Appalachian State loses to Georgia Southern. If James Madison beats Coastal Carolina, that leaves the door open for Appalachian State to capture the East division with a win against Georgia Southern.