September is traditionally the time when the leaves turn brown, workers return refreshed from summer vacations and firms ramp up their hiring. The job market is generally slow during summer, and active in the autumn: as the weather cools, recruitment heats up.
“There’s typically seasonality to hiring, with companies focusing on the fall as the period to build their labour forces,” explains Selcuk Eren, senior economist at global economic think-tank The Conference Board, based in New York. “In the US, Labor Day is normally followed by a cross-sector spike in hiring.”
Grace Lordan, associate professor at the London School of Economics, says it’s also a time of change for many workers. “Downtime over the summer allows employees the opportunity to realise whether they truly enjoy their job or not, and offers employers the chance to think strategically for the rest of the year,” she says. “So, September is when we see more movement in the job market.”
But as employees settle back into work this September, will they see the typical autumnal hiring spree? Rising global interest rates, inflation and cost of living may impact regular recruitment patterns, as employers adapt to economic uncertainty and potentially stifled demand. The labour market is seemingly already cooling: July saw the lowest monthly jobs gain in the US since December 2020, while there were 256,000 fewer vacancies in the UK compared to a year ago.
“This year could be different,” says Ryan Luby, senior expert and associate partner at consulting firm McKinsey & Company, based in New York. “There’s an ongoing multi-trillion-dollar question over consumer spending health, and whether we’ll still see a high-spending quarter as interest rates continue to rise. That has a material impact on consumer demand, and knock-on effects for hiring.”
Employers may not be investing in talent the same way as they have in past Septembers, but there will still be opportunities (Credit: Getty Images)
Despite this, though, the outlook seems relatively positive. Workers can still expect a recruitment uptick in autumn, even if it’s somewhat diminished compared to traditional patterns.
“Consumer spending has remained resilient through successive ways of the pandemic, rising energy prices and the steepest rise of interest rates in decades,” adds Luby. “Some companies will still be planning for a high-spending final quarter of the year, particularly in retail and hospitality, where there’ll be hiring.”
But those wobbling economic factors may mean some workers should also be concerned about layoffs. After all, it was only last autumn that companies, particularly in tech, began announcing wide-scale job cuts. But while reduced headcounts have continued through 2023, they’ve slowed down in recent months.
Eren says more mass redundancies aren’t expected this fall. “We’re not in a recession. And what we saw last year wasn’t normal – it was a one-time realisation from an industry that had grown too much versus demand.”
Instead, the signs point to many employers wanting to maintain their current workforces. A small July 2023 Conference Board survey of 127 CEOs in the US shows that 60% anticipate either a slight headcount reduction or stagnant growth over the next 12 months. “It’s not big enough to suggest mass layoffs,” says Eren, “but points to hiring this year being slower than typical September levels.”
While there will be variation between companies and sectors, most firms will likely want to settle with what they have, says Luby. “Employers have had huge difficulties during periods of high quit rates and talent shortages. Now, we’re seeing much less attrition, and waves of layoffs have calmed: it’s likely employers will want to keep current staffing numbers, so they can service demand through the holiday season. But the uncertainty may mean there’s less onboarding than a typical fall.”
The change in season may only bring opportunities of a fresh start for some job seekers, says Lordan. “It’s still worth contacting recruiters ahead of a potential autumn hiring spike – however small it may be.”