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Accelerating climate technologies through the science of scale-up

Abstract

Avoiding the worst effects of climate change depends on our ability to scale and deploy technologies faster than ever before. Scale-up has largely been the domain of industrial research and development teams, but advances in modeling and experimental techniques increasingly allow early-stage researchers to contribute to the process. Here we argue that early assessments of technology market fit and how the physics governing system performance evolves with scale can de-risk technology development and accelerate deployment. We highlight tools and processes that can be used to assess both these factors at an early stage. By bringing together technical risk assessments, scaled physics modeling, data analysis and in situ experimentation within multidisciplinary teams, new technologies can be invented, developed and deployed on a shorter timetable with greater probability of success.

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Fig. 1: Overview of scale-up tools and approaches.
Fig. 2: Technology development pipeline and risk assessment tools.
Fig. 3: Typical second law efficiencies for optimized industrial processes.
Fig. 4: Surrogate modeling for accelerated evaluation of low-TRL technologies.
Fig. 5: Advanced models, including reduced-order systems and data-driven networks, can be uniquely leveraged to glean new insights into physical processes.

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Acknowledgements

This work was performed under the auspices of the US Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under contract number DE-AC52-07NA27344 and was supported by Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) funding under project number 22-SI-006 (release number: LLNL-JRNL-860943-DRAFT). We thank C. Lee for drafting the figures.

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Author notes

  1. These authors contributed equally: Thomas Moore, Andrew A. Wong.

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, USA

    Thomas Moore, Andrew A. Wong, Brian Giera, Diego I. Oyarzun, Aldair E. Gongora, Tiras Y. Lin, Wenqin Li, Tracie Owens, Du Nguyen, Victoria M. Ehlinger, Aditya Prajapati, Seung Whan Chung, Pratanu Roy, Joshua DeOtte, Nicholas R. Cross, Alvina Aui, Youngsoo Choi, Maxwell Goldman, Hui-Yun Jeong, Congwang Ye, Eric B. Duoss, Christopher Hahn & Sarah E. Baker

  2. Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia

    Thomas Moore

  3. TotalEnergies E&P Research & Technology USA LCC, Houston, TX, USA

    Amitava Sarkar

  4. SUNCAT Center for Interface Science and Catalysis, Department of Chemical Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA

    Amitava Sarkar

  5. Center for Engineered Materials and Manufacturing, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, USA

    Eric B. Duoss

  6. Laboratory for Energy Applications for the Future, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, USA

    Christopher Hahn

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Contributions

S.E.B., C.H. and E.B.D. conceived the work. T.M. and A.A.W. organized the scope of the paper, worked with all authors on the content of each section, developed the introduction and conclusion, and conducted the final edits with equal contributions. A.A.W., T.O. and C.Y. worked on the risk assessment section. T.M., T.Y.L., V.M.E., N.R.C., P.R., A.E.G. and Y.C. worked on the modeling section, with W.L., A.E.G. and A.A. developing the LCA/TEA discussion and B.G., D.I.O., A.E.G. and S.W.C. developing the big data, digital twins and artificial intelligence section. J.D. and H.-Y.J. developed the detailed experimentation section. C.H., M.G. and A.P. developed the CO2 electrolysis section. D.N. developed the CO2 capture section. T.O. developed the perils of premature optimization and oversimplification section. A.S. and S.E.B. developed the section on building a scale-up team. T.M., A.A.W., C.H., S.E.B., D.N. and E.B.D. developed the case study section. All authors contributed to the text and figure edits throughout the entire paper.

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Christopher Hahn or Sarah E. Baker.

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Moore, T., Wong, A.A., Giera, B. et al. Accelerating climate technologies through the science of scale-up.
Nat Chem Eng (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s44286-024-00143-0

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  • Received: 03 April 2024

  • Accepted: 03 October 2024

  • Published: 18 December 2024

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s44286-024-00143-0

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