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The big idea

A.I. and nuclear decisions shouldn’t mix, U.S. says ahead of Biden-Xi summit

“They say it got smart. A new order of intelligence. Then it saw all people as a threat, not just the ones on the other side. Decided our fate in a microsecond: Extermination.”

So says Kyle Reese, one of the heroes in the film “The Terminator.”

The plot of the 1984 sci-fi smash turns on the Pentagon giving artificial intelligence (AI) control of America’s nuclear weapons. The system comes online Aug. 4, 1997, becomes sentient Aug. 29, 1997 and launches a nuclear war that wipes out much of humanity. Then “Skynet,” as it’s known, goes about building killer robots to hunt the survivors.

Skynet was strictly sci-fi four decades ago. But with AI becoming more sophisticated by leaps and bounds in 2023, worried world leaders have come together to try to agree on what limits to impose on its development and use, including in the military sphere.

The topic could come up next week when President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to meet on the sidelines of the Nov. 15-17 summit of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum.

Blinken’s message

In that context, Secretary of State Antony Blinken was asked Wednesday about prospects the United States and China could come to some understanding about keeping AI out of nuclear command and control. He did not rule it in, and did not rule it out.

• “I can’t get into the specific issues that they would discuss in any such meeting,” Blinken told reporters during a visit to Japan.

“I can say, as a general principle for us, that when it comes to artificial intelligence, that we believe that artificial intelligence should not be in the loop or making the decisions about how and when a nuclear weapon is used,” he said.

The White House did not respond to an email asking whether the issue would be on the docket when Biden and Xi meet next week.

But Colleen Cottle, a former Central Intelligence Agency Asia hand who is now the deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub, recently wrote that the two leaders could be looking for areas of agreement on AI.

“One potential, if politically fraught, target could be the creation of a dedicated channel to discuss artificial intelligence (AI) norms and guardrails,” Cottle said. (“Politically fraught” because of Republican opposition to such kinds of cooperation, she noted.)

China signs on to some, not all, guardrails

In February, China was among the more than 60 signers of the “call to action” that capped the Responsible Artificial Intelligence in the Military Domain summit, known as REAIM.

• “We note that AI can be used to shape and impact decision making,” it says in one section, “and we will work to ensure that humans remain responsible and accountable for decisions when using AI in the military domain.”

And Beijing was among the 28 countries that signed a declaration at the close of the first international AI Safety Summit, held at Bletchley Park, once a base for World War II codebreakers.

• “There is potential for serious, even catastrophic, harm, either deliberate or unintentional, stemming from the most significant capabilities of these AI models,” the document warns.

But China did not sign on to a U.S.-driven “Political Declaration on Responsible Military Use of AI and Autonomy,” endorsed by 30 other countries.

• “Military use of AI capabilities needs to be accountable, including through such use during military operations within a responsible human chain of command and control,” it says.
• And states should set safeguards, including the ability to disengage or deactivate systems if they “demonstrate unintended behavior.”

The military benefits of AI

How does the U.S. military see the potential benefits of integrating AI in its plans?

Here’s Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks, unveiling the Pentagon’s 2023 Data, Analytics, and Artificial Intelligence Adoption Strategy last week:

• “From the standpoint of deterring and defending against aggression, AI-enabled systems can help accelerate the speed of commanders’ decisions and improve the quality and accuracy of those decisions, which can be decisive in deterring a fight and winning in a fight.”  

Or Gen. Mark A. Milley, the recently retired chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, in an Oct. 8 interview with CBS’ “60 Minutes”:

• “Artificial intelligence is extremely powerful. It’s coming at us. I suspect it will be probably optimized for command and control of military operations within maybe ten to 15 years, max.”

“Optimized” doesn’t mean “put in charge of.” And harnessing AI’s potential will be critical to national security in the years ahead. But “unintended behavior” seems like a legitimate concern.

Politics-but-not

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What’s happening now

Tens of thousands flee as Israeli forces push farther into northern Gaza

“Tens of thousands of Palestinians fled northern Gaza, mostly on foot, as Israeli ground troops pressed their offensive into the densely populated Gaza City and clashed with Hamas. The United Nations said an estimated 72,000 people have fled to the south through a “corridor” opened by the Israeli military in recent days,” our colleagues report.

Lunchtime reads from The Post

The major takeaways from the third Republican debate

“Former president Donald Trump’s top Republican rivals attacked him in the third GOP debate Wednesday as a political loser, a changed man and a distracted leader who failed to implement his top policy goals as president,” Michael Scherer, Meryl Kornfield and Sabrina Rodriguez report. 

• “The harsher tone from three of the five candidates onstage marked the rising stakes for the remaining GOP candidates for president, with each of them running out of time to show they can challenge Trump’s dominance of the race despite his refusal to appear on the debate stage.”

More: Candidates use violent rhetoric on Israel-Gaza war without mentioning humanitarian aid

Big Tech wants AI regulation. The rest of Silicon Valley is skeptical.

“After months of high-level meetings and discussions, government officials and Big Tech leaders have agreed on one thing about artificial intelligence: The potentially world-changing technology needs some ground rules. But many in Silicon Valley are skeptical,” Gerrit De Vynck reports.

• “A growing group of tech heavyweights — including influential venture capitalists, the CEOs of midsize software companies and proponents of open-source technology — are pushing back, claiming that laws for AI could snuff out competition in a vital new field.”

… and beyond

We asked every member of Congress about child care policy. Only 5 Republicans answered.

“Most Democrats who responded to The 19th’s questions said they wanted to see a full overhaul of the child care system, throwing their support behind the Child Care for Working Families Act, which caps costs at 7 percent of family income, or the Child Care for Every Community Act, which would set up a system of federally supported, locally administered child care options where half of parents would pay no more than $10 a day,” the 19th’s Chabeli Carrazana reports.

• “The Republicans who responded to The 19th’s questions — Reps. Lori Chavez-DeRemer, Nancy Mace, Marc Molinaro and Adrian Smith and Sen. Rick Scott — offered solutions that were focused on easing specific challenges in the industry, such as lifting regulations to increase the supply of child care options, lowering costs through tax credits and improving child care funding in rural parts of the country.”

The Supreme Court dismantled Roe. States are restoring it one by one.

“When the right to abortion is on the ballot, it wins. It wins in red states that voted for President Donald Trump. It wins in counties President Joe Biden lost by more than 20 points. It wins when popular Republican officials campaign for it and when they ignore it. And it wins even when the outcome has no immediate effect on abortion access,” Politico’s Alice Miranda Ollstein, Megan Messerly and Jessica Piper report.

The Biden agenda

Heat pump installations slow, impeding Biden’s climate goals

“More Americans are buying heat pumps, an environmentally friendly alternative to furnaces and air-conditioners that can significantly lower monthly energy bills. But the pace of installations has slowed in the past year, posing an obstacle to the Biden administration’s climate plans,” the New York Times’s Santul Nerkar and Madeleine Ngo report.

The timeline of states legalizing marijuana, visualized

“On Tuesday, voters in Ohio approved Issue 2 to became the 24th state to legalize the recreational use of marijuana. In 2012, Colorado and Washington became the first states to legalize recreational marijuana use through ballot initiatives. Other states have legalized it more recently, including New York in 2021,” Tim Meko and Adrian Blanco report.

Hot on the left

Democrat-backed coalition targets vulnerable New York House Republicans

“Just over a year ago, Republicans in New York state flipped several congressional seats, helping usher in a GOP majority in the U.S. House. Now, a year out from the 2024 general election, groups aligned with Democrats see those same seats — in a state not always considered a battleground — as the key to reclaiming the House majority,” Maegan Vazquez reports.

• “Labor organizations and political-activist groups have formed a coalition called Battleground New York to carry out what they say is ‘the largest field campaign in New York history.’ Its aim is to claim five Republican-held House seats in congressional districts that Democrat Joe Biden won in 2020 and to hold on to another Democratic seat.”

Hot on the right

Trump flexes dominance with counter-programming to Republican debate

“Donald Trump escalated his campaign to make a mockery of the primary process Wednesday night by bringing a rally to the doorstep of the third Republican debate, raising pressure on his rivals and the party to wrap up the contest,” Josh Dawsey, Isaac Arnsdorf and Marianne LeVine report.

• “After paying no discernible political price for skipping the first two debates and blowing off making a pledge to back the eventual nominee, Trump sought to even more directly upstage Wednesday night’s faceoff in nearby Miami with his own event here. Trump has already demanded that the Republican National Committee scrap the debates and for his rivals to unite behind him. Now the campaign is aiming to burnish the perception of Trump’s inevitability and to persuade donors and Republican elected officials to stop propping up the other candidates.”

Today in Washington

At 12:25 p.m., Biden will arrive in Rockford, Ill. He will deliver remarks at 1:45 p.m. in Belvidere, Ill., on the United Auto Workers Union’s agreement and “highlighting his commitment to delivering for working families and creating good-paying union jobs.”

At 3:55 p.m., Biden will depart Rockford for Chicago, arriving at Chicago Midway International Airport at 4:55 p.m.

6 p.m.: Biden will participate in a campaign reception at 6:15 p.m. Then at 7:15 p.m., he will depart Midway Airport for O’Hare International Airport, where he will then fly to Joint Base Andrews. He will land at 9:15 p.m., and he will arrive at the White House at 9:25 p.m.

In closing

D.C. winter forecast: Most snow in 5 years and boosted big storm chances

“Even as we bask in abnormally warm weather, December is a mere three weeks away and so it’s time for our annual winter outlook,” Matt Ross and Jason Samenow report.

• “The last several winters have been a thrill for those who prefer mild weather in the Washington region but particularly disappointing for snow lovers. Just 0.4 inches of snow fell last winter, the third-least on record. It was also the second-warmest winter on record; 19 days hit at least 60 degrees in January and February.”
• “We’re anticipating a harsher winter ahead, and one that is much more satisfying for those who love the snow.”
• “Our outlook calls for above normal snowfall for the first time since the winter of 2018-2019, when Reagan National Airport, Washington’s official observing location, received 16.9 inches.”

Thanks for reading. See you tomorrow.