The UNLV Rebels aim to close out their most successful season in almost 40 years when they host the Boise State Broncos in Saturday’s 2023 Mountain West Championship Game. The Rebels (9-2, 6-2) have reached nine victories for the first time since Randall Cunningham led UNLV to a 11-2 mark in 1984. The Broncos (7-5, 6-2) are making their record seventh MWC Championship Game appearance and are seeking a fourth title, which would break a tie with Fresno State. Boise State has won six straight meetings dating to 1977, the most recent a 38-13 road victory in 2019.

Kickoff is set for 3 p.m. ET at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. The latest Boise State vs. UNLV odds via SportsLine consensus list the Broncos as 2.5-point favorites, and the over/under for total points scored is set at 60.5 Before making any UNLV vs. Boise State picks, be sure to check out the college football predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a stunning profit of well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It finished the 2023 regular season a profitable 13-9 on top-rated spread picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Boise State vs. UNLV and just revealed its picks and predictions. You can visit SportsLine to see the model’s CFB picks. Here are several college football odds and trends for UNLV vs. Boise State: 

• Boise State vs. UNLV spread: Broncos -2.5
• Boise State vs. UNLV over/under: 60.5 points
• Boise State vs. UNLV money line: Broncos -139, Rebels +117
• BSU: Is 10-5-2 ATS in conference games the past two seasons.
• UNLV: Is 9-7 ATS in MWC matchups over the past two seasons.
• Boise State vs. UNLV picks: See picks at SportsLine
• Boise State vs. UNLV live stream: fubo (try for free)

Why Boise State can cover

The Broncos have covered the spread in four of their past five to go 6-4-2 ATS this season. Their run game will be a handful for the Rebels, as BSU averages 207.5 rushing yards per game, second-best in the Sun Belt Conference. Running back Ashton Jeanty leads the conference in all-purpose yards, rushing for 1,113 (6.1 per carry) and adding 536 receiving yards (14.5 per catch) despite missing two games. The sophomore has scored 18 touchdowns.   

Boise State averages 437 yards, second-most in the SBC, and 32 points per game (fourth). George Holani (530 yards) and quarterback Taylen Green (346) also contribute to the run game. Green threw for 1,526 yards in the two-quarterback system, and with freshman Maddux Madsen out for the season, the sophomore will have full control. Green has accounted for 16 touchdowns, and receiver Eric McAllister has scored five times and has 837 yards (18.7 per catch). See which team to pick here.

Why UNLV can cover

The Rebels are 10-2 ATS this season, the second-best mark in FBS, and have won eight of their past nine games. They face a Boise team that is 1-5 ATS in MWC title games. The emergence of highly-recruited quarterback Jayden Maiava started UNLV’s run, as the freshman has 2,646 passing yards and 14 touchdown passes in nine starts. Ricky White leads the MWC in receiving yards per game (109), averaging 17.3 per catch and scoring seven touchdowns.    

Maiava has at least 225 passing yards in seven straight games and has a completion of at least 50 yards in six of nine starts. The Boise defense allows 255 passing yards per game, most in the Mountain West. The Rebels also have power in the backfield, with Vincent Davis leading the team with 667 yards (5.7 per carry) and Jai’Den Thomas scoring 12 of the team’s 36 rushing TDs. Jacob De Jesus averages 16.8 yards on punt returns (third in FBS) and 26.4 on kickoffs. See which team to pick here.

How to make Boise State vs. UNLV picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Under on the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 57 points. The model also says one side of the spread is hitting nearly 60% of the time. You can only see the model’s pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins UNLV vs. Boise State, and which side of the spread hits almost 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has notched a profit of well over $2,000 on its top-rated college football spread picks, and find out.