Potential Achilles’ heel: Can Kansas lose the math but still win the game?

Even in the modern era of basketball, it’s possible to build a very good offense without shooting a bunch of 3-pointers. The recipe requires an elite two-point offense, elite offensive rebounding, limited turnovers and occasionally a boatload of free throw attempts.

We have proof of concept where Bill Self builds a top-10 offense without shooting a bunch of 3s. In 2019-20, Kansas built the Big 12’s best offense with less than a third of the Jayhawks’ shots coming from beyond the arc. Kansas played slower, but Devon Dotson and Udoka Azubuike lived at the rim and the Jayhawks didn’t turn it over too often and murdered teams on the offensive glass.

Kansas might have to pull that archetype out again in 2023-24.

KU lost two high-volume shooters and replaced them with one. Jalen Wilson and Gradey Dick both attempted 200+ 3-pointers last season. Arterio Morris and Towson transfer Nick Timberlake were the biggest candidates to replace those 416 combined attempts, but Morris got kicked off the team for a heinous rape allegation. Suddenly, Timberlake is the lone proven high-volume shooter on the roster.

Outside of Timberlake, the rest of Kansas’ current roster combined to swish just 87 catch-and-shoot 3-pointers last season. LJ Cryer, who defected from Baylor to Houston this offseason, had 55 catch-and-shoot treys on his own last year. Expecting intriguing freshmen like Johnny Furphy and Elmarko Jackson to solve that problem feels a bit overboard.

Big 12 contenders like Texas, Baylor, Houston and Kansas State are all built to shoot far more 3s than Kansas on a per-game basis. KU can make up for it in other ways, but it leaves the No. 1 team in the country a bit more vulnerable on the nights when its trading 2s for 3s.

X-Factor: Kevin McCullar is … different

We have a 112-game sample size that describes what type of player Kevin McCullar is. The tenacious, 6-foot-6 wing is one of the best defender in the sport. He hounds opposing point guards like Iowa State’s Tamin Lipsey. He can guard big wings. He can guard shooters. He can fight against 5-men who he gets switched onto. He’s one of the best rebounding guards in the sport.

McCullar is a good college basketball player.

Yet, Kansas needs him to be different.

McCullar has toggled between mediocre to average offensively throughout his tenure. He’s a career 29.8% 3-point shooter on 262 attempts, and turnovers have always been an issue. But he makes dozens of free throws, moves the basketball, creates a bit and cuts like a madman which has helped him stick in the rotation for very good teams throughout his career. His offensive rating has been in the 102s in back-to-back seasons, according to KenPom. That’s a tick above average. He’s a relatively easy-to-replace offensive weapon who just happens to be anything but replaceable defensively.

Self believes he can get more out of McCullar.

A fifth-year player transforming into a completely different offensive player? There aren’t many examples of it. But KU believes retooled mechanics will help McCullar’s jumper stick for good. A jump as a shooter can help Kansas win the math equation (see: above), and if the catch-and-shoot efficiency can spike, he’ll be on NBA radars because the defense plays all day every day.

But McCullar’s growth as a secondary creator will be equally as important. Kansas needs an offensive alpha when Hunter Dickinson isn’t on the floor. McCullar is the most logical choice if his 20% turnover rate plunges.

It’s hard to expend the energy on defense that McCullar does and then turn around and carry a heavy load on the offensive end, but Kansas needs just that and more from him.

McCullar’s development, even as a fifth-year senior, is a quiet, defining subplot of Kansas’ push for another National Title. He has to be something he hasn’t been.