Friends, it is time. The first day of the college basketball season is blessedly here. And the Shot Takers have returned to tell you what will happen next.

Or, perhaps more accurately, The Athletic staff predicted who would win the men’s national championship in April. Four teams got votes. And now Dana O’Neil and I have been asked to argue about who was right and who was wrong.

It’s hard not to fast-forward to the end, no?

So for a moment let’s turn our attention away from the Spalding-IUPUI showdown that gets 2023-24 rolling — if that’s even possible — and get to our picks and everyone else’s. Dana, who was your choice to get the confetti shower in Glendale and why?

Dana: I went with Purdue. I know this sets me up for taunts as either Captain Obvious or a fool. My guess is people will trend more to the latter. That’s fine. Have at it.

Yes, I know of the Boilermakers’ history of troubles in the NCAA Tournament — one regional final since 1980. I do, in fact, recall the outright shame of 2023. Not merely the loss to Fairleigh Dickinson with the national Player of the Year, but the refusal to feed said 7-foot-4 Zach Edey in the post in the final minutes against the smallest team in Division I. I also remember the turnovers and the bad 3-point shooting and the epic collapse.

I know all of the reasons that picking Purdue is illogical. But I also know that, before it all went haywire in March, the Boilermakers won 29 games and Edey operated as a one-man wrecking crew in college basketball. He, if you hadn’t heard, is back. And he’s angry, and I don’t know about you, Hamilton, but I wouldn’t want to tussle in the paint with an angry Zach Edey.

Brian: The team with the most dominating player in the country, more experience around him and a collective rage over how the previous season ended … a solid pick. A logical pick.

Also? Wrong.

Until we filter out all the extra COVID-19 eligibility years and 24-year-olds are more likely to be in an office cubicle than in a college basketball gym, experience matters. A lot. But you can have experience without being ancient, and being good enough to legitimately expect to make tens of millions of dollars playing basketball matters, too. It’s particularly great when that talent syncs up with some experience.

Behold, Duke. Receiver of the most votes (four) to win the national championship, one of which belonged to me. In short — shift to extremely Stefan from “Saturday Night Live” voice — Duke has everything. The linchpin leader, Jeremy Roach, has played in 95 games and started 75. The two players with the most obvious NBA Draft Lottery potential — Kyle Filipowski and Tyrese Proctor — ranked second and third on the team, respectively, in total minutes played as freshmen. Mark Mitchell — 948 minutes as a freshman — could ascend to that level with a breakout season. The Blue Devils stayed old along the bench (Ryan Young is back for a fifth year) while also infusing the gym with more raw talent and competitive pressure. Every player in a four-man freshman class was a top-25 prospect, and for whatever it’s worth, those around the program believe that group’s work ethic and general fearlessness is beyond their years. They’re good, they’ll make the veterans better, and Duke doesn’t have to count on them entirely. Pretty much an ideal setup.

Right, so defense could be … interesting. Injuries are unpredictable, and Filipowski is coming off double hip surgery. But Duke has really good players who also have seen some things. That’s the blueprint.

Dana: Excuse me, sir, but you failed to mention the coach. Not to say Jon Scheyer has done a bad job — because he has not — but we don’t know yet, do we? And I think, when the other options are two Hall of Famers and one guaranteed future Hall of Famer, such things matter. I also remember Duke looking like the victim of the recess yard bully against Tennessee last year. As good as the Blue Devils are offensively, what happens when a game becomes a slog?

Frankly, of the four top picks among our staff, I likely would have slotted the Devils fourth, leaning toward Michigan State (a three-vote-getter) or Kansas (two) ahead of Duke. Why? As I said, start with the coaches. Tom Izzo has now been to 25 consecutive NCAA Tournaments, and while admittedly it’s been a bit since he won the thing, he knows how to manage March.

I also happen to think this roster might give him the best chance he’s had in years. The Spartans gotta be the most experienced team in the top 25 — five of their top six scorers return, four of whom are seniors, including Tyson Walker and A.J. Hoggard in the backcourt, and Jaden Akins on the wing. Michigan State also has a terrific freshman class, and while everyone is crowing about Xavier Booker, I’d be more inclined to keep an eye on Coen Carr. He’s silly athletic.

Then there’s Kansas. While I am not nearly as high as everyone else on the preseason No. 1 team, I understand the confidence. Because Bill Self. Is there a better, more complete coach in the game right now? I’ll answer for you. There is not. And handing him Hunter Dickinson, with a lineup that already includes Kevin McCullar Jr. and Dajuan Harris Jr., seems unfair.

I’m curious what you think of the Spartans and Jayhawks, though.

So do tell.

Brian: It’s not the largest sample size in the history of sample sizes, but it did surprise me that Kansas only got two votes. I’m not even sure why I didn’t pick Kansas, let alone why nine other writers passed. The good players have a ton of experience, and Hunter Dickinson seems (for now) to be the likeliest threat to Edey repeating as national player of the year. The freshmen are all top 100 prospects who can push the older guys while not having to carry the burden entirely. And Self — as noted by pretty much everyone who we talked to for our Coaching Tiers — is probably the best head coach in men’s college hoops. I suppose the only trepidation is how much oxygen Dickinson takes up in the room. He could be the perfect center for Self and singularly motivated after his run at Michigan. He could be the perfect center for Self and also a personality who corrodes a roster. It’s not some sort of fiction that NIL money, and the jealousy it can inspire, can drag a team down. But maybe Kansas has a robust enough operation in that area, so much so that no one can differentiate one pile of money from another.

Michigan State, arguably, is under more pressure than Purdue. Izzo ain’t getting younger. And I agree this is his best chance at a second national championship in years, both due to the personnel on hand and it being the last year before he has to figure out a significantly altered Big Ten. Moreover, I’m guessing the league’s national title drought has been felt more keenly in East Lansing than maybe anywhere else, simply because the Spartans are annually a top candidate to break the streak. Good problem to have, of course. But Izzo will have to work to keep perspectives narrow, maybe even with himself. A lot of guys may hear a clock ticking. That can also be distracting, when the important stuff is right in front of you in the moment.

In closing, Dana, I think we can agree on one thing: It’s extremely possible that we’re all wrong.

Dana: Well I just went through ye olde archives and looked at our staff picks for last year. We did not cast one single vote for UConn.

So, yes. We’ll all be wrong.

(Our panel of voters: Nicole Auerbach, Tobias Bass, Brian Bennett, Scott Dochterman, Brian Hamilton, Brendan Marks, CJ Moore, Dana O’Neil, Brendan Quinn, Joe Rexrode, Kyle Tucker, and Justin Williams.)

Previous predictions:

Surprise team

Disappointing team

First-year coaches

Freshman of the year

Player of the Year

(Photo of Jeremy Roach: Grant Halverson / Getty Images)