Jack Draper keeps trucking along. Last week, he won the challenger event in Bergamo. This week, the Brit has won three matches in the 2023 ATP Sofia draw. Next, Draper will face Jan-Lennard Struff at the Sofia Open. This should be a competitive match as Draper draws the highest-ranked player that he has faced over the last two weeks. My Draper vs Struff prediction is that this will be a long match where Draper relies on his service winners to try and shorten the points.

Order of Play: Right-click/Open in the New Tab to check match times: subject to change

Jack Draper vs Jan-Lennard Struff Head-to-Head Series

The Draper vs Struff h2h is 0-0 as these two players have not faced one another in the past. Draper isn’t just a favorite in this upcoming match, which will be their first head-to-head meeting, but he is actually a pretty significant favorite at -250 (bet365). It could be that he has taken in some bets due to his winning streak. Following his victory in the quarterfinals on Thursday, Draper has won eight matches in a row.

In those eight matches, he has gone 16-2 on sets played. However, if you were to do a power ranking assessment of those wins, his recent form would still only imply that he is playing at about the level of a player just inside the Top 50. NONE of the players that Draper has brushed aside in the last two weeks are proven talents on the ATP Tour, except David Goffin. In the Belgian’s case, his best tennis is years in the past now. Furthermore, Goffin, for two minutes of tennis, almost beat Draper in the Bergamo final.

Stuff: hard-court fluff?

Jan-Lennard Struff is ranked 28th in the world. But Struff’s ranking is heavily influenced by his clay-court results. He was in the Monte Carlo Masters quarterfinals back in April. A short time later, he actually made the Madrid Masters final as a lucky loser. Without that result, which required a withdrawal to get him into the main-draw field, we wouldn’t be looking at a Top 30 player right now.

Struff is a very average hard-court player. So far this season, he has won 78% of his games serving on the hard court while breaking just 15% of the time (stats as per ATP; pre-tournament). That implies that he is more likely to be the one broken than to do the breaking on this surface.

Meanwhile, the hard-court surface is one that Draper does well on. When it comes to the chance that the Brit is tired heading into this match, it can never be discounted. This will be his ninth match since October 31st. Yet, Draper has been so efficient in his matches in Sofia that there is a chance that he isn’t in that bad of shape. Furthermore, he is only 21 years old and youth helps with recovery times between matches. Draper is, in fact, a very tough read right now.

The Draw: Right-click/Open in the New Tab for the draw for the 2023 Sofia Open

Draper vs Struff Prediction: Draper has more aces

In this ambiguous match, bettors should count on Draper to serve some aces. In the “Ace Totals” market for the match with bet365 toggle to “Most” and select Draper to out-ace Struff at odds of -120 (bet365). Draper is a good server in his own right. But at this stage in a difficult schedule, he may just have to try and shorten the points strategically. Struff would like an ace at any time but would not mind a rally against a tiring opponent.

Also, OVER 23.5 games played in this match looks good with bet365 at +100. It’s not likely that either of these guys will simply brush the other aside. Draper backers have to be treading lightly. If he wins, it’s not like -250 makes you rich anyway.