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E-waste challenges of generative artificial intelligence

Abstract

Generative artificial intelligence (GAI) requires substantial computational resources for model training and inference, but the electronic-waste (e-waste) implications of GAI and its management strategies remain underexplored. Here we introduce a computational power-driven material flow analysis framework to quantify and explore ways of managing the e-waste generated by GAI, with a particular focus on large language models. Our findings indicate that this e-waste stream could increase, potentially reaching a total accumulation of 1.2–5.0 million tons during 2020–2030, under different future GAI development settings. This may be intensified in the context of geopolitical restrictions on semiconductor imports and the rapid server turnover for operational cost savings. Meanwhile, we show that the implementation of circular economy strategies along the GAI value chain could reduce e-waste generation by 16–86%. This underscores the importance of proactive e-waste management in the face of advancing GAI technologies.

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Fig. 1: Hierarchical framework of our computational power-driven material flow analysis model and the corresponding scenario results regarding LLM-related waste generation without interventions.
Fig. 2: Circular economy strategies and their potential impacts on GAI-related e-waste generation.

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Data availability

This paper analyzes existing and publicly available data. All data sources used in this research are referenced in the main text or in Supplementary Information17. Source data for Figs. 1b,c and 2b,c are available with this paper.

Code availability

The main code of our approach (as well as datasets to run the code) is available17.

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Acknowledgements

This research was financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (72274187 to P.W., 71961147003 to W.-Q.C.) and CAS IUE Research Program (IUE-JBGS-202202 to P.W.). We thank E. Masanet and our other colleagues for their contributions, which have improved this study.

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Author notes

  1. These authors contributed equally: Peng Wang, Ling-Yu Zhang.

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Key Lab of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen, China

    Peng Wang, Ling-Yu Zhang & Wei-Qiang Chen

  2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

    Peng Wang & Wei-Qiang Chen

  3. School of Sustainability, Reichman University, Herzliya, Israel

    Asaf Tzachor

  4. Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK

    Asaf Tzachor

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  1. Peng Wang
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Contributions

P.W. and L.-Y.Z. designed the research; L.-Y.Z., P.W. and A.T. led the drafting of the manuscript. P.W., L.-Y.Z. and W.-Q.C. contributed to the methodology; L.-Y.Z., P.W. and A.T. interpreted the results. All authors contributed to the final writing of the article.

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Peng Wang, Asaf Tzachor or Wei-Qiang Chen.

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Nature Computational Science thanks Loïc Lannelongue, Mengmeng Wang and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work. Primary Handling Editor: Kaitlin McCardle, in collaboration with the Nature Computational Science team.

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Supplementary Information

Supplementary Discussion, Figs. 1–8, Tables 1–4 and equations 1–7.

Supplementary Data 1

Table of studied scenarios, giving a brief description and key parameter configurations for each scenario studied in the main text.

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Wang, P., Zhang, LY., Tzachor, A. et al. E-waste challenges of generative artificial intelligence.
Nat Comput Sci (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43588-024-00712-6

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  • Received: 22 February 2024

  • Accepted: 24 September 2024

  • Published: 28 October 2024

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43588-024-00712-6

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