The first El Niño winter in four years is coming, and it promises to disrupt weather patterns and travel plans across the U.S.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the 2023–2024 winter season will be marked by the El Niño weather pattern, which generally brings warmer, dryer weather to the northern U.S. and Canada and wetter weather to the south.
Here is everything you need to know about what El Niño is and how it can affect your life this winter.
What is El Niño?
In normal climate patterns, trade winds push warm water from the Pacific Ocean’s surface west towards Asia, per the National Ocean Service. El Niño is a climate pattern that occurs when the trade winds weaken, pushing warm water back towards the Americas.
The warmer ocean pushes the Pacific Jet Stream further south and extends its reach, leaving parts of the northern U.S. and Canada drier and warmer than normal and causing areas along the southern U.S. and northern Mexico to experience greater precipitation.
It generally lasts between nine to 12 months and occurs every two to seven years, but its timing varies, per the NOAA.
How will El Niño affect winter 2023?
In an article on winter weather predictions published on Oct. 19, the NOAA said this year’s El Niño will likely lead to warmer temperatures in parts of the northern and western U.S and greater precipitation in the South. However, El Niño is different every time it appears, and estimates may be incorrect, per The Weather Channel.
The NOAA’s article included several maps of the predicted weather patterns across the U.S. According to the maps, Utah is likely to experience regular temperatures but slightly higher precipitation than normal.
Michelle L’Heureux, climate scientist at the Climate Prediction Center, told the NOAA that El Niño isn’t the only factor influencing winter weather — climate change could also have an effect.
“Climate change can exacerbate or mitigate certain impacts related to El Nino,” she said. “For example, El Nino could lead to new records for temperatures, particularly in areas that already experience above-average temperatures during El Nino.”
How will El Niño affect travel?
Winter tourism in different areas will likely be affected by unusual winter weather. Ski resorts in states with higher expected precipitation, like Utah and Colorado, will likely experience an increase in visitors, whereas those in Montana, which is expected to have below-average snowfall, may see the opposite.
Airline travel is also likely to be affected by this year’s winter storms, and El Niño may increase the frequency and intensity of those storms in certain areas. You can keep an eye out for active weather alerts on the National Weather Service’s website.
If you will be traveling anywhere within the areas predicted to experience greater precipitation due to El Niño, it’s a good idea to prepare a Plan B in case your trip is rescheduled due to inclement weather.