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The projected fair value for Applied Nutrition is UK£1.90 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
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Applied Nutrition’s UK£1.52 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate
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Applied Nutrition’s peers seem to be trading at a lower discount to fair value based onthe industry average of 8.8%
How far off is Applied Nutrition Plc (LON:APN) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we’ll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today’s value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.
View our latest analysis for Applied Nutrition
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company’s cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren’t available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today’s dollars:
|
2025 |
2026 |
2027 |
2028 |
2029 |
2030 |
2031 |
2032 |
2033 |
2034 |
|
|
Levered FCF (£, Millions) |
UK£16.9m |
UK£18.6m |
UK£20.8m |
UK£22.4m |
UK£23.8m |
UK£24.9m |
UK£26.0m |
UK£26.9m |
UK£27.7m |
UK£28.4m |
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Growth Rate Estimate Source |
Analyst x1 |
Analyst x1 |
Analyst x1 |
Est @ 7.83% |
Est @ 6.11% |
Est @ 4.91% |
Est @ 4.07% |
Est @ 3.48% |
Est @ 3.07% |
Est @ 2.78% |
|
Present Value (£, Millions) Discounted @ 6.9% |
UK£15.8 |
UK£16.3 |
UK£17.0 |
UK£17.2 |
UK£17.0 |
UK£16.7 |
UK£16.3 |
UK£15.8 |
UK£15.2 |
UK£14.6 |
(“Est” = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = UK£162m
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business’s cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country’s GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.1%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year ‘growth’ period, we discount future cash flows to today’s value, using a cost of equity of 6.9%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = UK£28m× (1 + 2.1%) ÷ (6.9%– 2.1%) = UK£608m
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= UK£608m÷ ( 1 + 6.9%)10= UK£313m
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is UK£474m. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of UK£1.5, the company appears about fair value at a 20% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don’t agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company’s future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company’s potential performance. Given that we are looking at Applied Nutrition as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we’ve used 6.9%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.985. Beta is a measure of a stock’s volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Whilst important, the DCF calculation ideally won’t be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Applied Nutrition, we’ve put together three essential aspects you should consider:
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Risks: Every company has them, and we’ve spotted 1 warning sign for Applied Nutrition you should know about.
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Future Earnings: How does APN’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
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Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the LSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.