Both in the U.S. and globally, Barclays’ forecast for the recorded music market tells a story of continued growth, driven primarily by digital streaming, which accounted for two-thirds (67%) of revenue in 2022.

For the worldwide market, where wholesale revenue gained 9.0% in 2022 to $26.2 billion – from 2021’s $24.0 billion – growth is expected to hit double-digits for 2023, up an estimated 10.4% to $28.9 billion. Looking ahead, Barclays’ forecast shows the market up 8.1% in 2024, when it should pass the $30 billion mark ($31.3 billion, to be exact), eventually hitting $37 billion by 2027, with a 7.5% compound annual growth rate over the next five years.

“The growth rate since 2016 has been the industry’s best performance since the glory days of 1987-1995 and is therefore notable,” Barclays’ report says, referring to the peak years of the compact disc. It also notes that the recorded music market now stands at 95% of its 1996 peak, on a retail basis (as in, money spent by consumers).

For the U.S., Barclays’ revenue forecast is equally bullish, with an estimated 9.8% gain for 2023, following 2022’s 4.8% lift. Growth should continue through 2027, although at lower rates.

On the music publishing side, the global revenue trend is expected to replicate that of recorded music, with an estimated 14.1% rise to $9.3 million for 2023, up from 2022’s $8.1 million. According to Luminate, more than half (54%) of publishers’ revenue comes from online streaming and downloading, followed by radio, TV and live royalties, at 23%.