Fashion is fickle. Jean shapes change, hemlines rise, and colours fall in and out of favour. Deleterious to our bank balance as these machinations may be, they’re just part of the game. Of more concern, however, is an increasing trend for body shapes to fall in and out of favour. 

While most women are sanguine about altering the shape of their jeans, their body shape is more immutable. No woman should have to change her body for fashion: in an ideal world, fashion should change to accommodate their bodies. After decades of thin models dominating the international catwalks, those not born with “model proportions” (5ft 9in, dress size UK 4-6) have been heartened to see more body diversity in recent seasons.

When Vogue, once a gatekeeper of slimness, featured plus-size models Paloma Elsesser, Precious Lee and Jill Kortleve on the cover of its April issue and pronounced them “a new kind of supermodel”, it seemed as though fashion was finally embracing the inclusivity it purported to embrace in theory, but rarely in practice. 

The newest edict from US lingerie giant, Victoria’s Secret, indicates that the pendulum may be swinging in the other direction again. Its latest marketing policy is bringing sexy back – and not in a body-inclusive way. After retiring its traditional catwalk shows, complete with signature “angels”, in 2018, and declaring its aspiration to be “the world’s leading advocate for women”, America’s biggest lingerie brand appears to be equating its latest sales slump with its recent attempt to make its marketing campaigns more inclusive. 

Which begs the question: do plus-size models sell? According to Victoria’s Secret, the answer appears to be no. Revenue for 2023 is projected to be $6.2 billion (£5.1 billion), a five per cent drop on 2022 and a poor performance when compared with the $7.5 billion revenue it reported in 2020. Martin Waters, the brand’s chief executive, has admitted that “despite everyone’s best endeavours and some really good initiatives, it’s not been enough to carry the day.”

The “really good” initiatives to which Waters is alluding have chiefly centred around size inclusivity. The turnaround started in 2020, with a Valentine’s Day campaign that included plus-size model Marquita Pring. Its Christmas 2021 campaign featured plus-size model Devyn Garcia; other plus-size models engaged by the brand include Candice Huffine, Ali Tate Cutler and Kortleve. In lieu of its famous catwalk show, in September it launched The Victoria’s Secret World Tour, a 90-minute documentary streaming on Amazon Prime. 

“This is who we are,” said Raul Martinez, the brand’s creative director. “We haven’t forgotten our past, but we’re also speaking to the present.” Elements from its past include former “angels” Adriana Lima and Candice Swanepoel, two of the brand’s most recognisable faces who did much to turbo-power sales. But the film also included a more racially and body-inclusive cast of models such as Elsesser and Tess McMillan. 

There are likely many more reasons for Victoria’s Secret sales being slow than its recent embrace of female empowerment. Even its chief executive admitted that the current economic climate has been “very challenging”, and that “sales are going backwards for most people”.

More likely is that this is a storm in a G cup which detracts from the far more complex reasons that may be behind Victoria’s Secret’s decline in sales. If body diversity is really to blame, it certainly hasn’t hindered sales at Savage x Fenty. Launched by Rihanna in 2018 and currently valued at $270 million, the lingerie brand has always used models of all races and sizes in its marketing campaigns, as well as in its catwalk shows – a move that made VS’s roster of slim (and predominantly white) supermodels look tired and exclusionary. If “female empowerment” doesn’t sell, then Skims, the Kim Kardashian-owned brand of lingerie and shapewear, wouldn’t have mushroomed into a $4 billion juggernaut in less than four years.

It’s also worth noting that Victoria’s Secret’s profits were in decline long before it embraced size inclusivity: between 2016 and 2018, its market share in the US dropped from 33 per cent to 24 per cent. Post MeToo, the world has changed; not as much as women were promised, but enough for its exclusionary values to have seemed out of step with the mood of the times.

While plus-size representation in the lingerie market is still reasonably strong, there are signs that it is declining in the womenswear market. At the height of the body positivity movement in 2018 and 2019, the fashion world enthusiastically adopted the notion that “all bodies are beautiful”, with plus-size models Ashley Graham, Tess Holliday, Lee and Kortleve modelling for previously resistant brands such as Dolce & Gabbana, Versace, Fendi, Michael Kors and Chanel. For several seasons, the catwalk looked more reflective of real women.

But this season, the mirror cracked. An analysis of the most recent round of international catwalk shows (spring/summer 2024) conducted by Vogue Business found that of 9,584 looks across 230 presentations in New York, London, Milan and Paris, 0.9 per cent were plus-size (US 14+) and 3.9 per cent were mid-size (US 6-12). This means 95.2 per cent of looks presented were in a standard size (US 0-4). Notable exceptions included the designers Karoline Vitto, whose Milan show featured only plus-size models, and London-based Sinead O’Dwyer.

Cynics would opine it was inevitable that plus-size models would be a short-lived catwalk fad. High fashion has always favoured tall, slim models: in 2014, Alexandra Shulman, then editor of British Vogue, caused controversy when she admitted that “nobody really wants to see a real person looking like a real person on the cover of Vogue”, because “Vogue is a magazine about fantasy and dreams, an escape from real life”.

While the luxury end of the market has always tried to gatekeep by producing its clothes in limited sizes, of more concern is plus-size’s declining representation on the high street. During the pandemic and in its aftermath, it became fairly commonplace for high-street brands to use plus-size and mid-size models in their marketing, with curve (plus-size) model agencies reporting an uptick in demand. With the average UK dress size a 16, and 71 per cent of all womenswear sales being in sizes 10-16, it made sense for brands to employ models who reflected this. “It’s important to see diversity in fashion, and to see yourself represented,” says Gia Lazarova, head of Milk Management’s Curve division. “Customers respond better when they see how clothes look on different body types, as it makes them feel included.” 

Not everyone agrees. On Reddit, a thread titled “I’m less likely to buy from brands who use size diversity in their models” attracted a slew of critical comments from users admitting they are more inclined to buy a product “if the model wearing it is pretty and skinny, because the clothes look nicer on them”. One added: “I’ve never looked at an overweight model and wanted to buy something. It distracts from the clothing, and doesn’t generate that ‘I want to look like that’ factor.” Another says: “It’s normalising obesity. It’s very dangerous to simply accept those kinds of bodies as normal, because they’re not. Of course brands should produce clothes for bigger people, but they shouldn’t promote them.”

It’s an extreme point of view, one mercifully not held by retailers such as H&M and ASOS. While neither was able to provide specific sales statistics for items photographed on plus-size models, an H&M spokesperson said: “Making great fashion available to everyone has always been our priority, and through our collections we want to embrace the diversity of being human. There are no limits to who our customers are, and it is important that everyone feels represented in our campaigns.” H&M confirmed that its womenswear is available in sizes up to 4XL (UK 32-34). 

ASOS, which photographs all of its 3,000-plus Curve range on plus-size models (including footwear and jewellery), says that sales in larger sizes are booming. “Skirts in particular are performing exceptionally well, at almost double the sell-through rate of last autumn/winter,” said a spokesman. “Sales of dresses and tailoring in our ASOS Luxe range have also substantially increased versus previous years.” ASOS Curve is available in sizes UK 16-30. 

Stephanie Yeboah, the London-based content creator and plus-size fashion expert, says she’s noticed a slight increase in plus-size models at an e-commerce level compared with last season, which she believes is in response to customer demand. “Whenever I post myself in outfits on Instagram, I always get a lot of messages saying that I’ve worn and styled the clothing better than the smaller models who have worn them. There’s a definite demand to see plus-size models wearing clothes. I’m more inclined to buy a piece if I see it being modelled on a plus-size person. We need to see clothes being shown on an array of body shapes.” 

Speaking off the record, however, one London-based fashion consultant detailed how she’d recently worked with a high-street retailer who had discreetly ditched photographing its clothes on size 16 models, after finding sales were noticeably poorer than when the same items were shown on size 8s. “People might say they want to see more size inclusivity, but fashion is a business. If the plus-size models aren’t shifting stock, they’re unlikely to be used again.”

Fashion might be a business, but few would disagree that it’s essential to have all body shapes represented in fashion. Body shapes should never be a trend, and any brand or individual that tries to make them one should be challenged.