Hubert Hurkacz, the champion from the 2023 Shanghai Masters, will face Tallon Griekspoor at the 2023 ATP Basel tennis event this week. This will be a quarterfinal match in the tournament on Friday. A spot in the semifinals is at stake and, perhaps, a reasonable draw to the tournament’s final. My Hurkacz vs Griekspoor prediction focuses on the ace count for the big-serving Hurkacz, a player who should do well in Basel this week.
Order of Play: Right-click/Open in the New Tab to check match times: subject to change
Hubert Hurkacz vs Tallon Griekspoor Head-to-Head Series
These two players have met twice before and both matches were played this season. However, neither of the matches were played under the conditions that Friday’s match will be played under.
At the French Open this season, Hurkacz defeated Griekspoor in a five-set affair on clay. Then in Halle, Griekspoor defeated Hurkacz in a match that was played on grass. The two players are even on sets at 4-4. But both of their matches were played outdoors while the upcoming match is within an indoor tournament (2023 Swiss Indoors Basel).
The indoor setting should help the bigger server out. Indoor tennis matches eliminate the wind factor and that seems to help servers out just a little bit more. Hurkacz is 6’5″ and he did serve his way to a title in Shanghai. He has 590 aces against just 65 double faults this season on the cement. He is No. 1 on the ATP Stats Leaderboard for servers this season.
The Draw: Right-click/Open in the New Tab for the draw for the 2023 Swiss Indoors Basel
Hurkacz vs Griekspoor Prediction: Hurkacz OVER 14.5 aces
Griekspoor looks like he will be a tough out. But he does not quite look like he is playing well enough to beat Hurkacz. That said, I’m not a fan of the odds of -250, the moneyline odds for Hurkacz to win this upcoming match (bet365). The popular markets aren’t a great focus for this match, in my opinion.
My recommendation, if you are eyeing this match, is to bet on Hurkacz’s ace total. Take OVER 14.5 aces based on the chance that Griekspoor might play well enough to increase the number of service games in this match (-110; bet365). Hurkacz had 11 aces in the last match but that was in a routine win. If the match against Griekspoor has more games, let alone a third set, then Hurkacz’s ace total should be much higher.
In their short head-to-head series, these two players have played a lot of sets so there is a chance for a long match. In fact, bettors could go for something in this match and take 20+ aces for Hurkacz at +240.
Additional reading: All previews for upcoming tennis matches!