The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season is forecast to be more
active than average, and we’re still two weeks away from the peak of the season.

The main driving factor is that oceans are a lot warmer than average and it’s these warm waters
that fuel the development of hurricanes.

Idalia poses by far the greatest threat of all the
storms so far this season. One of the major concerns is that water temperatures
in the Gulf of Mexico are above normal, but especially so near to the US coasts
where the waters are 2-3C warmer than average.

This will lead to rapid
intensification of Idalia on its final approach to Florida with the current
forecast predicting sustained winds of 125mph (201km/h), with gusts up to 155mph.

The ominous trend is that with each successive forecast, the
expectation is for ever stronger winds.

Landfall is expected within hours in
northwest Florida with torrential rain and a potentially life-threatening storm surge, which is going to lead to some severe flooding.

Even as the winds begin to subside,
the threat of extreme rainfall and heavy flooding will extend to both North
and South Carolina too. Idalia looks like it will be a very dangerous storm.