A last-minute deal that rescued the COP29 climate talks in Baku, Azerbaijan, is a “fragile consensus”, researchers who study climate finance have told Nature.

Visibly relieved COP delegates from rich countries applauded in the early hours of 24 November following a last-minute pledge in which rich countries will ‘take the lead’ in increasing climate finance to poor countries to at least US$300 billion annually by 2035. Low-and middle income countries, notably China, will be expected to contribute to international climate funds, a first for a COP agreement.

But delegates from some of the largest developing countries, including India, Indonesia and Nigeria were furious. Some alleged that they had been pressured into a deal, so that the COP meeting did not end in failure. The meeting also did not agree how much of the $300 billion is to be in grants versus loans, nor how much will come from private or public-sector sources.

Current climate finance from rich to poor countries is more than $100 billion and projected to double to nearly $200 billion by 2030 under a ‘business as usual’ scenario, according to an analysis by ODI Global, a think tank in London.

Old wounds

“The finance outcome for Baku was deeply disappointing,” says Dipak Dasgupta, an economist at The Energy and Resources think-tank in New Delhi, and a lead author on climate finance for reports assembled by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

“While snatching this COP back from the flames deserves momentary celebration, getting here also exposed old wounds between wealthier and poorer nations,” notes Clare Shakya, head of climate at The Nature Conservancy, an international conservation organization headquartered in Arlington, Virginia, in the United States.