The final at the 2023 Erst Bank Open is set. Daniil Medvedev will face Jannik Sinner in the championship match at the 2023 ATP Vienna tennis event this weekend. The winner will take away 500 ranking points for his efforts this week and add another title to his career count. My Medvedev vs Sinner prediction is that the latter will win this upcoming match as a slight underdog.
Order of Play: Right-click/Open in the New Tab to check match times: subject to change
Recent Match Results for Daniil Medvedev and Jannik Sinner
Medvedev is 8-2 in sets played thus far in Vienna this week. He did have a tough draw in the early rounds. Back at the start of the tournament, Medvedev eliminated Arthur Fils, who was in good form heading into the tournament. The Russian would drop sets in each of his next matches against Grigor Dimitrov and Karen Khachanov respectively. In the semifinals, Medvedev handled Stefanos Tsitsipas in straight sets to advance to the final against Sinner.
Sinner has not dropped a set in Vienna this week. He is into the final through Ben Shelton, Lorenzo Sonego, Frances Tiafoe, and Andrey Rublev. Sinner’s toughest matches came in the first round and the semifinals. Perhaps, Sinner was fortunate to pick up Shelton immediately after the American went on a title run in Tokyo last week. In some ways, his first three matches were a bit soft as Sinner caught both Shelton and Tiafoe in minor lulls.
In recent tournaments, Sinner has been a force. He beat Medvedev for a title in Beijing not too long ago. He also won the Canadian Masters in the North American summer hard-court swing on tour.
Recent matches (Right click/Open link in new tab): Daniil Medvedev
Daniil Medvedev vs Jannik Sinner Head-to-Head Series
Medvedev is 6-1 against Sinner. However, that Sinner won their last match cannot be ignored. The line score was 7-6, 7-6 in a pretty even match where Sinner won 54% of the points that they played. Beijing was played outdoors while the event in Vienna is an indoor one. Medvedev remains undefeated at 5-0 against Sinner in indoor matches on the hard-court surface.
The Draw: Right-click/Open in the New Tab for the draw for the 2023 Erst Bank Open
Medvedev vs Sinner Prediction: Sinner wins
Medvedev’s serve isn’t quite where it needs to be to win this match. He has thrown in a lot of double faults in Vienna this week. At -150, he looks overrated in this match (bet365). He could be viewed as a mild underdog. I think the true odds for this match would be +115 on Medvedev.
Sinner has been a little sharper in his service games recently, which could give the Italian an edge in this final. At +120, he looks like a value pick. Despite the losing record against Medvedev, that Sinner won their recent match is a big part of previewing their upcoming one. Sinner is a lot younger than Medvedev and some of their matches were played at a time when he, Sinner, was developing. There should be more parity in their head-to-heads in the years to come with Sinner likely posting a winning record against Medvedev from now on.
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