Minnesota Twins
2023 record: 87-75 (.537)
First place, AL Central
Team ERA: 3.87 (6th)
Team OPS: .753 (7th)
What Went Right
Getting to play in the AL Central was definitely a boon.
The rotation, top to bottom, was probably the best in baseball, trailing only that pf the Padres in terms of ERA. Sonny Gray will finish in the top three in the AL in Cy Young balloting, and Pablo López looked like an ace in the second half. Joe Ryan slipped as the result of a groin strain, but he still managed a 197/34 K/BB ratio in 161 2/3 innings, and Bailey Ober pitched to a 3.43 ERA in his 26 starts. On offense, the next wave emerged, with Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien and Matt Wallner excelling as rookies. The Twins also got very good performances from Ryan Jeffers, Michael A. Taylor and Willi Castro, all of whom were expected to play lesser roles than they ended up doing.
What Went Wrong
Injuries limited Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, Lewis and Alex Kirilloff to less than 100 games. Buxton, in particular, made little impact as a DH with a 98 OPS+. Carlos Correa managed to play in 135 games, but he was disappointing offensively and defensively while dealing with plantar fasciitis throughout. Christian Vázquez, signed to start over Jeffers, was horrible offensively in hitting .223/.280/.318. Joey Gallo batted .177. One seventy-seven. Jose Miranda batted .211/.263/.303 in 40 games before ultimately undergoing shoulder surgery. Big 2022 trade acquisition Tyler Mahle required Tommy John surgery.
Fantasy Slants
** Lewis will likely be the first Twin taken in fantasy drafts next spring after hitting .309/.372/.548 with 15 homers and 52 RBI in 58 games as a rookie, but can he stay healthy? The 24-year-old missed all of 2021 with a torn right ACL and injured the ligament again in 2022, limiting him to 46 games then and costing him the first month and a half of last season. He later missed five weeks with an oblique strain and two weeks with a groin strain. In total, he’s played in 118 games in three years. He still has some contact issues as well, and he isn’t quite a sure thing offensively. As a fourth- or maybe even a third-round pick, he’d seem to be one to shy away from.
** López is the guy who might go ahead of Lewis, and it’s not far-fetched to look at him as a top-five SP after a season in which he struck out 29 percent of the batters he faced. Statcast gave him the best xERA (3.00) of any qualified starter, and SIERA had him fifth.
** While it was rib and hamstring injuries that put him on the IL, Buxton’s right knee was the main culprit in his inability to play center field. He underwent another surgery after the season, and the hope is that he’ll return to the field next year. His fantasy stock is so far down at this point that he’ll make for an interesting target. His speed was actually intact last year, and he stole nine bases in 85 games. His strikeout rate was up, but that wasn’t supported by his contact numbers, which were a little better than usual. He’ll almost certainly miss a fair amount of time again, but if his knee responds, he could be quite a bit more valuable for fantasy purposes when he’s healthy.
** Ryan was a top-10 fantasy starter for three months, going 8-4 with a 2.98 ERA and a 100/15 K/BB ratio in his first 15 starts. He had a crazy 0.91 WHIP in 93 2/3 innings over that span. He started to struggle while hiding a groin strain that ended up sidelining him for most of August, and with a tough schedule that included two starts against Texas and outings in Cincinnati and Colorado, he pitched to a 4.79 ERA despite a 45/9 K/BB ratio in 35 2/3 innings after returning. It was definitely a disappointing conclusion for those who smartly targeted him in the spring, but it also means his price tag will be reasonable next year, and he should again be a major asset in WHIP and strikeouts.
** The Twins will soon have to decide how to make room for Brooks Lee, the eighth overall pick in the 2022 draft. A natural shortstop, Lee started playing a little third base after his promotion to Triple-A in the second half of the season, and if the Twins think he’ll be ready at some point next season, it will play into their thinking on what to do with Polanco. Correa isn’t going anywhere, but the Twins have some flexibility with Lewis, who could shift from third to an outfield corner once Lee proves worthy of an opportunity.
Key Free Agents
Sonny Gray, Jorge Polanco*, Max Kepler*, Kenta Maeda, Tyler Mahle, Michael A. Taylor, Donovan Solano, Joey Gallo, Emilio Pagán, Dylan Floro
Polanco ($10.5 million) and Kepler ($10 million) will certainly have their reasonable club options exercised, though they could become trade bait afterwards.
Team Needs
In spite of the long free agent list, the Twins are in very good position entering 2024. Again, it helps a bunch that they’re in the AL Central. They do need to re-sign Gray or replace him with another quality alternative. Chris Paddack, back from Tommy John, can step in as the fifth starter, with Louie Varland in reserve and top prospect David Festa on the way. A setup man in front of Jhoan Duran would help. Buxton in center and Kirilloff at first base are the big question marks on offense, but the Twins could mostly take a wait-and-see approach there. They have a lot of flexibility, and if they need to upgrade later, it won’t be hard to find corner players. They can’t count on their starting pitchers performing quite so well again, but they’ll go into the 2024 as the class of their division.