Andy Murray finds himself as an underdog in the first round of the 2023 Rolex Paris Masters. The former World No. 1 will face Alex de Minaur at the tennis event this week, which is also known as ATP Paris 2023. Murray won the event in 2016, en route to claiming the year-end No. 1 ranking that year. However, the years have passed for the Scot and he should be in very tough against his Australian opponent on Monday. My Murray vs de Minaur prediction is that the two players will be in a reasonably long match. For this contest, I am focusing on a betting prop involving the number of games.
Order of Play: Right-click/Open in the New Tab to check match times: subject to change
Andy Murray vs Alex de Minaur Head-to-Head Series
These two players have met six times in recent seasons. Murray has managed to claim three sets off of de Minaur. However, there are no match-wins for the three-time Grand Slam champion in their series. De Minaur is a perfect 6-0 against Murray, including three wins from this season. The two players met on tour about a month ago in Beijing, with de Minaur winning two sets to one.
There are small hints that Murray might be into this match. He did play well in Basel last week, claiming a win over Yannick Hanfmann before going to a three-setter in the next round against Tomas Martin Etcheverry. Furthermore, de Minaur has not been great lately. In all of Basel, Tokyo, and Shanghai he lost matches that he probably should not have lost to Tallon Griekspoor, Aslan Karatsev, and Fabian Marozsan respectively. De Minaur does appear to be in a little bit of a dip, perhaps redeeming Murray’s chances a little.
The Draw: Right-click/Open in the New Tab for the draw for the 2023 Rolex Paris Masters
Murray vs de Minaur Prediction: OVER 22.5 games
The Scot is coming in at +200 in the match (bet365) on the moneyline. You have to feel like +250 is where the clear value would be. Bettors should instead be taking the OVER for total games at 22.5 and -110. Murray might keep de Minaur on the court for some long sets and there may be a third set in this match, just as there was last time they met about a month ago. The betting odds on each player to win the third quarter are listed below (bet365).
Third Quarter 2023 Paris Masters
This quarter is one where Jannik Sinner is the player considered most likely to prevail. However, there should be some questions as to how much energy he will have after winning in Vienna last week. Certainly, there are better-rested players in this quarter. De Minaur and Murray are both on the radar as 4th and 6th favorites in this quarter of the draw.
Jannik Sinner +140
Andrey Rublev +400
Tommy Paul +700
Alex De Minaur +800
Jordan Thompson +1400
Andy Murray +1400
Adrian Mannarino +1400
Botic Van De Zandschulp +1800
Mackenzie McDonald +2500
Benjamin Bonzi +2500
Jeffrey John Wolf +2000
Yoshihito Nishioka +2800
Dusan Lajovic +5000
Richard Gasquet +5000
Additional reading: All previews for upcoming tennis matches!