The Nevada football team hosts Wyoming on Saturday. Nevada Sports Net’s Chris Murray breaks down the game against the Cowboys with his three keys to victory and prediction. This feature is presented in partnership with Bradley, Drendel & Jeanney.
Wyoming (7-4, 4-3 MW) at Nevada (2-9, 2-5)
When: Saturday, 6 p.m.
Where: Mackay Stadium (capacity 27,000)
Surface: FieldTurf
Weather: High of 42; low of 16; 10 percent chance of rain
TV/Radio: CBS Sports Network/105.7 FM (also on the Varsity Network)
Online: None
Betting line: Wyoming by 11; total of 41.5
All-time series: Wyoming leads, 5-4
Last matchup: Nevada won, 37-34 (OT), on Oct. 24, 2020 (in Reno)
Three keys to the game
1. A fast Pack start: Nevada head coach Ken Wilson said getting off to a faster start is important for his team, which has allowed six of its 11 opponents to score a touchdown on their opening series. Last week, Nevada fell into a 20-3 hole before nearly rallying back to tie the game in the fourth quarter. The Wolf Pack has been outscored 84-43 in the first quarter (minus-41) and 98-38 in the third quarter (minus-60), which has been its two worst quarters. Nevada needs better starts in each half, but more specifically the first half to put a little pressure on the favored Cowboys. The Wolf Pack has had the lead after the first quarter just three times this season and is 2-1 in those games (the only loss was at Texas State, a game it led 17-0 at halftime). In a game that’s expected to be low scoring – an over/under of just 41.5 points – the Wolf Pack dropping into a double-digit early lead would likely be fatal.
2. Make Wyoming win through air: Wyoming has one of the most run-oriented offenses in the Mountain West with a unit that runs the ball 35 times per game, with 59.7 percent of the Cowboys’ plays being rushes. Wyoming has improved its passing attack this season and is coming off a game in which it threw for 319 yards and three touchdowns when its previous-high passing attack this year was 212 yards. Wyoming’s passer rating of 138.3 ranks 57th in the nation after the team was 125th last year, so the Cowboys’ offense is more versatile than previous seasons. But Nevada needs to stop Wyoming’s run offense first and foremost as the Cowboys want to establish the run with the team averaging 149.6 rushing yards per game. It’s not an elite rushing attack, and if Nevada can limit that run and make QB Andrew Peasley win the game through the air, it has a much better chance of springing the upset.
3. Force multiple turnovers: We’re getting repetitive with this stat, but Nevada is 4-2 when winning the takeaway battle under Wilson and 0-17 when not winning that battle (0-8 when tied; 0-9 when losing it). Bottom line is Nevada needs extra possessions to win games given the state of its offense. That won’t be easy against Wyoming, which has turned the ball over 11 times in 11 games, the MW’s second fewest. The Cowboys are plus-eight in turnover margin (15th in the FBS) to the Pack’s minus-two margin (81st in the FBS). That can’t be the case if Nevada is going to end the season on a winning note. That Pack defense must take the ball way and find the end zone, or at minimum give the offense some short fields to work with. Nevada has forced at least one turnover in 10 of its 11 games, the lone exception being the UNLV loss. But the Pack needs multiple turnovers; it’s had four such games in 2023.
Prediction
Wyoming 24, Nevada 17: Wyoming has picked up three high-quality wins this season with wins over Texas State, Appalachian State and Fresno State and is one victory shy of its first eight-win regular season since 2016 when Josh Allen was the team’s quarterback. One area Wyoming has struggled is winning on the road where the Cowboys are 0-4 this season. Last week’s 42-9 win over Hawaii notwithstanding, Wyoming is not known for blowing teams out. Its five other FBS wins are by an average margin of 5.6 points, each by single digits. We’ll predict a similar outcome with Wyoming winning by a touchdown. Season record: 7-4 (straight up); 6-5 (against the spread)
Columnist Chris Murray provides insight on Northern Nevada sports. Contact him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter at @ByChrisMurray.