The Nobel Prize in Literature is notoriously difficult to predict. Although some names are tipped more often, there are at least a couple of dozen authors who could realistically win.

The judges start with a list of about 220 names, then narrow that down to about 20, before eventually reaching a shortlist of five. None of those lists are made public, though, so we don’t know who the nominees are.

The winners can come from any country – the past 10 years have seen two winners each from the US and France, and others from Tanzania, Belarus, Austria, Poland, the UK and Canada.

Those are mainly from Europe and North America – so maybe it’s time for a winner from Asia or South America?

But I won’t put money on it.