Ole Miss basketball vs. NC State score prediction, scouting report in ACC/SEC Challenge

OXFORD — In eight opportunities at home against top-100 KenPom foes last season, Ole Miss basketball managed just one victory.

The Rebels will get their first chance to collect a quality home win under Chris Beard when they welcome NC State to the SJB Pavilion on Tuesday (8 p.m., ESPN2).

The Rebels (5-0) have tiptoed their way through the easiest portion of their schedule, most recently surviving a close call at Temple thanks to Allen Flanigan’s free throws with less than 10 seconds remaining. NC State (4-1) also started its season with an unbeaten stretch against weaker opposition before suffering a neutral-site loss to a strong BYU team last time out.

Extra possessions key for NC State

Through its first five games of the season, NC State has achieved every basketball coach’s dream.

The Wolfpack rarely give the ball away, with a turnover percentage of 12.2 that ranks ninth in the nation. Likewise, Kevin Keatts’ team is proficient at forcing turnovers, doing so at a 23% rate which is good for 26th nationally.

That dynamic is spearheaded by fantastic defensive guard play. Both of the Wolfpack’s primary point guards, Michael O’Connell and Jayden Taylor, are averaging over a steal per game.

Even leading scorer Casey Morsell, who posts 15 points per game, owns a reputation for strong defense. He’s averaged more than a steal per game in each of the past two full seasons.

NC State plays at a higher tempo than any team the Rebels have encountered to this point. Beard’s Rebels, comparatively, operate at a very slow pace. Establishing that rhythm and avoiding the high-tempo chaos where the Wolfpack can create the takeaways it needs could be a path to victory for Ole Miss.

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Ole Miss basketball still looking to establish defensive excellence

Beard, who has missed the NCAA Tournament just once in his career as a head coach, has achieved quick success at all three of his prior stops thanks to elite defenses.

There hasn’t been much elite about Ole Miss’ defense so far. Giving up 67 points per game – good enough to rank 115th out of 363 Division I teams – the Rebels have been merely good where they likely need to be great to be competitive. Some of that moderate success is a product of their slow pace, too, rather than defensive efficiency.

Defending the 3-point line has been a problem. The Rebels’ foes are shooting 34.5% from deep on the year, and 38.8% over the past three games, in which Ole Miss has beaten Detroit Mercy, Sam Houston State and Temple by a combined five points.

The Rebels have been much stronger defensively on the interior, where the 7-foot-5 Jamarion Sharp is typically positioned. Sharp is averaging 2.8 blocks per game despite playing only 19.8 minutes per contest.

If Ole Miss can rectify its vulnerabilities on the perimeter, its defense could get scary in a hurry. NC State comes into this game shooting 35.1% from 3-point range.