Jessica Pegula will face Iga Swiatek in the championship match at the 2023 WTA Finals tennis event on Monday. This will be the final match of the WTA season. There are some minor events in November and December, however, the major players rarely play until the South Pacific swing in January. It has been an exciting week at the 2023 GNP Seguros WTA Finals Cancun and the two best players in the event are about to settle the championship. My Pegula vs Swiatek prediction is that the American will win at least one set in this upcoming match.
Order of Play: Right-click/Open in the New Tab to check match times: subject to change
Jessica Pegula vs Iga Swiatek Head-to-Head Series
These two players have met eight times in the past. Swiatek holds a small edge in the series at 5-3. They did meet three times this season according to bet365’s match stats. Pegula went 2-1 in 2023 against Swiatek, including a win at Montreal in August. Meanwhile, Swiatek won a match early in the season at Doha.
World No. 1 Ranking CAN Change Hands
The World No. 1 ranking is at stake in this match. If Swiatek claims victory, then she will reclaim the top spot and relegate Aryna Sabalenka to the No. 2 position.
Pegula cannot get the No. 1 ranking directly with the result herself. However, if she claims a win then the extra ranking points could help her battle for the top spot in the 2024 WTA season as ranking points are banked for 52 weeks. Pegula can get to 4th with a title in Cancun. But more importantly for tennis fans worldwide, Pegula does act as the last line of defense for Sabalenka remaining the No. 1 player. Sabalenka’s fans will likely be cheering for Pegula in this upcoming match.
Recent matches (Right click/Open in New Tab): Jessica Pegula
Pegula vs Swiatek Prediction: Pegula wins a set
The betting odds favor Swiatek at -250 (bet365) on the moneyline. Those odds do seem to be a bit short based on the situation. The Polish player did have a losing record to Pegula this season at 1-2.
On recent form, Pegula does have a nine-match winning streak active. Additionally, she is 18-1 in sets played in those matches. You could come up with stats that favor Swiatek as well. She is 10-0 in her last ten matches with a 20-1 sets-won-to-sets-lost trend within those results.
The fact that you can come up with some strong results for each player suggests parity between the two. That calls into question Swiatek’s status as a moderate favorite. The Polish player should be at -160 and no shorter, in my view.
You do have to like the odds on Pegula to win a set at -138 (bet365). That she went 2-1 this season against Swiatek is what bettors should be considering. Given that the players playing in this match can only be red hot, the recent head-to-head meetings are the best food for thought.
Additional reading: All previews for upcoming tennis matches!