Casper Ruud has been playing below his normal standard lately. But he has a chance to turn things around in Basel this week. The Norwegian will face Alexander Bublik at the 2023 ATP Basel tennis event in the tournament’s first round. My Ruud vs Bublik prediction is that the latter will win this match, which is expected to appear on Wednesday’s order of play in Basel.
Order of Play: Right-click/Open in the New Tab to check match times: subject to change
Casper Ruud vs Alexander Bublik Head-to-Head Series
These two players have met six times according to the ATP’s stats for the head-to-head series. There is not a lot of parity in the series, with Ruud leading 5-1. However, Bublik’s only victory came in an indoor hard-court match, the same conditions that the Swiss Indoors Basel event will be played under. Yet, Ruud is 2-1 against Bublik when all of their indoor hard-court matches are looked at.
In terms of recent matches, the two players have bumped into one another just one time this season. Ruud claimed a match win on clay at the Rome Masters earlier in 2023. The victory came at a time when Ruud was nearing a run to the French Open final, a match that appears to have shifted the Norwegian’s fortunes.
The Draw: Right-click/Open in the New Tab for the draw for the 2023 Swiss Indoors Basel
Ruud vs Bublik Prediction: Bublik at +150
Bublik might take in some bets at +150 on the moneyline because he just won a title (bet365). He was in the ATP Antwerp draw last week and posted four wins, going 8-1 in sets played in the Belgian tournament. However, Bublik did not face a Top Ten player in the draw. While four matches are not a ton to play in one tournament, there is a chance that Bublik is a little worse for wear due to his recent efforts.
But Ruud has flat-out been a disappointment lately. He took a loss to Marcos Giron last week in Tokyo. In Shanghai, Ruud fell to Christopher Eubanks. At the US Open, he fell to World No. 67 Zhizhen Zhang.
You have to go all the way back to Roland Garros to find a time when Ruud looked like a Top Ten player. Tennis fans will remember what happened there: Ruud fell in the final to Novak Djokovic in straight sets. It seems that the loss took a mental toll on Ruud. Based on form since that time, he can only be viewed as a Top 30 player.
Conventional wisdom would support going against Bublik here since he could be tired. However, Antwerp was a small event. I’m thinking bettors should be taking the plus odds on Bublik at +150 on the moneyline, counting on him having enough in the tank to take out a struggling player.
Additional reading: All previews for upcoming tennis matches!