Ben Shelton survived a tough match in the semifinals in Tokyo, one where compatriot Marcos Giron simply did not have enough to cross the finish line. Next, Shelton will face Aslan Karatsev in the 2023 ATP Tokyo final (Kinoshita Group Japan Open Tennis Championships). Shelton enters the final having played a tough match in the semifinals but he is much younger than Karatsev. My Shelton vs Karatsev prediction is that each player goes for a lot of aces in an attempt to keep the match points shorter. Accordingly, my focus is on a betting prop involving ace totals for each player.
Schedule of Play: Right-click/Open in the New Tab to check match times: subject to change
Recent Match Results for Ben Shelton
Shelton’s victory in the semifinal may be formative. It spoke volumes to his defiance of defeat. Down a set and two breaks, he came all the way back to win. His reward is that he now has a chance for a significant title on tour.
Previously, Shelton played a strong tournament in Shanghai last week. He defeated Jannik Sinner, the champion from Beijing. Incidentally, Sinner and Shelton are scheduled to face one another in the first round of the Vienna draw next week. However, Shelton will be focused only on the upcoming final in Tokyo at this time.
ATP Tokyo final: vs Aslan Karatsev
Shanghai Masters quarterfinal: Loss to Sebastian Korda
US Open semifinals: Loss to Novak Djokovic
Cincinnati Masters R32: Loss to Stefanos Tsitsipas
Canadian Masters R32: Loss to Carlos Alcaraz
ATP Washington R32: Loss to Juncheng Shang
Recent matches (Right click/Open link in new tab): Ben Shelton
Ben Shelton vs Aslan Karatsev Head-to-Head Series
Shelton and Karatsev faced one another in the third round of the 2023 US Open. The match was under very different circumstances. While Flushing Meadows and ATP Tokyo are both hard-court events, when Shelton faced Karatsev in New York, the American was in a home-country tournament with fan support. Furthermore, Shelton had won his previous match at the US Open via retirement — meaning he would have been very fresh for the third round. In Tokyo, he enters the final against Karatsev following a tiring affair.
Perhaps it is with these considerations that this match is considered a betting-odds coin toss. Each player comes in at -110 on the moneyline. At the US Open, Shelton was a mild favorite at -150, according to my notes from the match (all odds bet365).
Shelton has never won a title on tour yet. That has a lot to do with his age (he’s 21). Karatsev is 30 years old and he has 3 titles to his credit. All of them are in hard-court events and in the last three seasons. Karatsev also enjoyed a fairly routine win in the last round. He should be in good shape for the final, which redeems his chances.
The Draw: Right-click/Open in the New Tab for the draw for the 2023 Kinoshita Group Japan Open Tennis Championships
Shelton vs Karatsev Prediction: 20+ aces at +125
Shelton backers can ground hopes in the youth of their player. Shelton did have a tough time advancing but at the age of 21, he should be in reasonable shape for the final. In a very tough match to call, you could put Shelton at -125 for true odds but that’s not a huge difference from -110, the betting odds (bet365).
I’m expecting a match where each player favors short points. Furthermore, there could be some mobility problems on each side that affect reaction times a little. Ace counts should be high in this match with 20+ in total priced at +125. That prop bet is my recommendation for this match.
Moneyliners would be going with Shelton, expecting his superior talent to make a difference and for his youth to pay dividends at this late stage of a tiring week. However, Karatsev’s match in the semifinals was so routine, that you have to respect the fact that he won’t be that tired in the final.
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