DELMARVA FORECAST
Sunday: Sunny and seasonable. Not as windy. Highs in the upper 50s.
Sunday night: Clear and chilly. Lows around 32°F.
Monday: Becoming partly cloudy. Cool. Highs in the low 50s.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy early, then afternoon showers, becoming a more widespread rain overnight. Highs in the upper 50s. One to two inches of rain likely. Chance of rain 50 percent during the day, 90 percent overnight.
Wednesday: Morning showers, then partly cloudy. Highs in the low 60s. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Thanksgiving Day: Partly cloudy. Cool. Highs in the low 50s.
Friday: Mostly sunny and cool. Highs in the low to mid 50s.
Saturday: Chance of showers. Highs in the upper 50s. Chance of rain 40 percent.
FORECAST DISCUSSION
Normal high: 57°F. Normal low: 37°F.
After a dry cold front brought chilly and windy conditions to Delmarva on Saturday, our Sunday is shaping up to be quite seasonable and pleasant.
High pressure is building in from the west, and as the frontal boundary continues to move away, that pressure gradient will relax and we’ll see sunny skies, less wind, and seasonable temperatures in the upper 50s.
Then we look ahead to what is for many an abbreviated work week that will be quite interesting in the weather department – a good news, bad news situation.
A low pressure system is expected to develop near the Gulf Coast and head toward the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. With this system is expected to also arrive some substantial rain. The timing as it looks now is showers overspreading Delmarva Tuesday afternoon, with the heaviest of the rain overnight into early Wednesday before ending by midday. While this could be a nuisance for holiday travelers, current guidance is suggesting one to two inches of welcome rainfall for many. However, we will need to keep an eye on any localized flooding threats.
Our Thanksgiving forecast is looking a little more optimistic.
On Saturday, we were seeing significant disagreement in our intermediate-long range models, with one suggesting sunshine, and the other suggesting heavy rain.
Today, with the latest runs, the model suggesting heavy rain is starting to move a little more into agreement with the others, and we’re feeling a little more optimistic that we will not see rain on Thanksgiving Day, but more and more likely sun. We’ll keep an eye on this forecast as we watch how the models develop over the next 72 to 96 hours.
Black Friday is shaping up to be mostly sunny and cool as high pressure builds in.
However, long range guidance is in decent agreement that another round of significant rainfall (which will be appreciated by some), will arrive for Saturday, again just in time to slow down post-Thanksgiving travel. This part of the forecast is nearly a week away, so for now we’ll just keep an eye on it.
In the tropics, there are no areas of development interest. The Atlantic hurricane season ends on November 30.
The long-term 8-14 day outlook has temperatures averaging below normal and precipitation slightly above normal for November 26 – December 2.