The makeup of a college basketball champion


2015 Duke — fourth in eFG%, 35th in turnover rate, 32nd in offensive rebounding rate (shot well, took care of the ball, got extra possessions on offensive glass)
2016 Villanova — eighth in eFG%, 58th in turnover rate, 43rd in defensive turnover rate (shot well, took care of the ball on one end and forced turnovers on the other)
2017 North Carolina — 39th in turnover rate, first in offensive rebound rate (took care of the ball, got a ton of extra possessions on offensive glass)
2018 Villanova — first in eFG%, 14th in turnover rate (shot the absolute cover off the ball, and took care of the ball)
2019 Virginia — 19th in eFG%, 12th in turnover rate (shot well, took care of the ball)
2020 N/A — no tournament
2021 Baylor — seventh in eFG%, 54th in turnover rate, fourth in defensive turnover rate, fifth in offensive rebound rate (shot well, took care of the ball, forced turnovers and got extra possessions on offensive glass)
2022 Kansas — 29th in eFG%, 40th in offensive rebound rate (shot well, gained extra possessions on offensive glass)
2023 UConn — 33rd in eFG%, second in offensive rebound rate (shot well, gained extra possessions on offensive glass)

Of those teams, 2017 North Carolina is the fun one to look at because it’s the only one that didn’t rank in the top 33 in effective field goal percentage—the Tar Heels sat all the way down at 115th. So how did North Carolina win? Taking care of the ball and destroying on the glass — North Carolina grabbed 41.3% of the available offensive rebounds and 75% of the available defensive rebounds, providing a monster 16.3% gap in offensive rebound rate — North Carolina piled up extra possessions.

And that came up huge in the Final Four and national championship game. North Carolina topped Oregon 77-76 in the former game after getting 10 more field goal attempts after grabbing five more offensive rebounds and committing five fewer turnovers. In the title game, UNC topped Gonzaga by six after getting 73 (!!!) shots to Gonzaga’s 59. The Bulldogs did a solid job keeping the Tar Heels off the offensive glass, with North Carolina a plus-three there, but North Carolina also won the turnover battle by 10 after the Tar Heels only committed four turnovers themselves.

Shooting the ball well is important, but no team hits outside shots for six straight games. It’s important when those shots aren’t falling to have a backup plan, like a way to churn out more possessions than their opponents.


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