The Tony Award nominations were revealed Thursday, and for theater kids around the globe, it’s expected to be a good one. There’s a lot of competition in the most prominent categories, and anything can happen. With that in mind, here are some predictions for the biggest awards.
Best Musical:
“Buena Vista Social Club”
“Dead Outlaw”
“Death Becomes Her”
“Maybe Happy Ending”
“Operation Mincemeat: A New Musical”
Prediction: “Maybe Happy Ending”
This is an incredibly tough category to pin down. It’s incredibly plausible that four out of the five nominations could win, so the choice that I’ve made is based on nothing but a feeling I’ve got in my gut; a feeling that’s telling me that “Maybe Happy Ending” is the one to beat.
Best Play
“English”
“John Proctor is the Villain”
“Oh, Mary!”
“Purpose”
“The Hills of California”
Prediction: “John Proctor is the Villain”
I’ll go against what nearly every critic says and pick “John Proctor is the Villain” over “Oh, Mary!” Both of these plays are spectacular, and either one of them winning would be a pleasant outcome… but for now, my money’s on “John Proctor is the Villain.”
Best Revival of a Play
“Eureka Day”
“Romeo + Juliet”
“Thornton Wilder’s Our Town”
“Yellow Face”
Prediction: “Eureka Day”
With the star-studded “Glengarry Glen Ross” officially out of the running, this category becomes a lot easier to predict. “Yellow Face” and “Eureka Day” are the clear front-runners, and they really are running away from the competition. I’d like to see the former win, but I do believe that the critical reception that the latter has gotten will give it that boost it needs to win.
Best Revival of a Musical
“Floyd Collins”
“Gypsy”
“Pirates! The Penzance Musical”
“Sunset Blvd.”
Prediction: “Gypsy”
The nominations for this category were always going to be the four that they were, though they might as well just be “Sunset Boulevard” and “Gypsy.” Both “Pirates! The Penzance Musical” and “Floyd Collins” have had too many mixed reviews for me to think they’ll be able to overcome the first two.
Picking from the frontrunners, though, I’ll have to go against what everyone else is saying and pick “Gypsy” over “Sunset Boulevard.” It’ll be a tight race, though, and I can see it going either way.
Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Musical
Darren Criss — “Maybe Happy Ending”
Andrew Durand — “Dead Outlaw”
Tom Francis — “Sunset Blvd.”
Jonathan Groff — “Just in Time”
James Monroe Iglehart — “A Wonderful World: The Louis Armstrong Musical”
Jeremy Jordan — “Floyd Collins”
Prediction: Jonathan Groff — “Just in Time”
If you’re looking for a category chock-full of recognizable names, this is the one to look at. Jonathan Groff, Darren Criss and Jeremy Jordan are all nominated, and the race is a close one, to be sure. Groff is off the heels of winning this award last year, and I don’t think it would be the most unimaginable thing in the world for him to get the repeat.
Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Musical
Megan Hilty — “Death Becomes Her”
Audra McDonald — “Gypsy”
Jasmine Amy Rogers — “Boop! The Musical”
Nicole Scherzinger — “Sunset Blvd.”
Jennifer Simard — “Death Becomes Her”
Prediction: Audra McDonald — “Gypsy”
Despite both leading ladies in “Death Becomes Her” getting nominated for this category, I still struggle to see it as anything other than a fight between Audra McDonald and Nicole Scherzinger with Scherzinger’s performance in “Sunset Blvd.,” and even then, I believe that McDonald is a shoo-in to win.
Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Play
George Clooney — “Good Night, and Good Luck”
Cole Escola — “Oh, Mary!”
Jon Michael Hill — “Purpose”
Daniel Dae Kim — “Yellow Face”
Harry Lennix — “Purpose”
Louis McCartney — “Stranger Things, The First Shadow”
Prediction: Cole Escola — “Oh, Mary!”
There is a world in which George Clooney does not win this award… and it is this one. Cole Escola has been so incredibly involved in their production of “Oh, Mary!” that it’s all anyone has been able to talk about for the longest time. This just feels like a situation where you should bet on the favorite.
Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Play
Laura Donnelly — “The Hills of California”
Mia Farrow — “The Roommate”
LaTanya Richardson Jackson — “Purpose”
Sadie Sink — “John Proctor Is the Villain”
Sarah Snook — “The Picture of Dorian Gray”
Winner prediction: Sarah Snook — “The Picture of Dorian Gray”
Sarah Snook is the clear frontrunner for this category in nearly every prediction put on the internet, and I have to agree with them. A one-woman show is incredibly impressive, and I believe that Snook will absolutely be awarded for that. If there’s another name to look out for, I would pose Laura Donnelly with her dual role in “The Hills of California”
Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Musical
Brooks Ashmanskas — “SMASH”
Jeb Brown — “Dead Outlaw”
Danny Burstein — “Gypsy”
Jak Malone — “Operation Mincemeat: A New Musical”
Taylor Trensch — “Floyd Collins”
Prediction: Jak Malone — “Operation Mincemeat: A New Musical”
Jak Malone won an Olivier award just last month for his work in “Operation Mincemeat,” and I fully believe that the recognition will carry over to the Tony’s. If it doesn’t go to him, though, I could believe that anyone else who’s been nominated could win.
Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Musical
Natalie Venetia Belcon — “Buena Vista Social Club”
Julia Knitel — “Dead Outlaw”
Gracie Lawrence — “Just in Time”
Justina Machado — “Real Women Have Curves: The Musical”
Joy Woods — “Gypsy”
Prediction: Natalie Venetia Belcon — “Buena Vista Social Club”
The way I haven’t mentioned “Buena Vista Social Club” until now would probably have you believing that I’m against it. You would be wrong. I do think that this musical is extremely well-produced, but it is unfortunate enough to go up against some of the best musicals out there at the moment. I don’t think it’ll go home empty-handed, though, instead winning this category for Natalie Venetia Belcon’s lovely performance.
Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Play
Glenn Davis — “Purpose”
Gabriel Ebert — “John Proctor Is the Villain”
Francis Jue — “Yellow Face”
Bob Odenkirk — “Glengarry Glen Ross”
Conrad Ricamora — “Oh, Mary!”
Prediction: Conrad Ricamora — “Oh, Mary!”
“Oh, Mary!” is a show that’s already expected to do incredibly well, and I fully expect that to continue with Conrad Ricamora’s portrayal of Abraham Lincoln. A critically acclaimed performance from a critically acclaimed show.
Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Play
Tala Ashe — “English”
Jessica Hecht — “Eureka Day”
Marjan Neshat — “English”
Fina Strazza — “John Proctor Is the Villain”
Kara Young — “Purpose”
Prediction: Fina Strazza — “John Proctor Is the Villain”
Every prediction has to have a dark horse and this is mine. Through all the research I did leading up to these predictions, I have seen Fina Strazza’s name brought up a total of zero times, even for the nominations. Strazza led “John Proctor is the Villain” and has been lauded for her emotional performance… I can see her pulling ahead of the pack and winning.
Best Direction of a Musical
Saheem Ali — “Buena Vista Social Club”
Michael Arden — “Maybe Happy Ending”
David Cromer — “Dead Outlaw”
Christopher Gattelli — “Death Becomes Her”
Jamie Lloyd — “Sunset Blvd.”
Prediction: Christopher Gattelli — “Death Becomes Her”
I’m a bit sad that this is my only prediction for “Death Becomes Her,” because I really do enjoy the musical. To me, though, it’s just in a similar predicament to “Buena Vista Social Club” with the stiff competition that musicals have this year. This show is overall well-directed, though, so it’s not far-fetched that the committee would throw them a bone.
Best Direction of a Play
Knud Adams — “English”
Sam Mendes — “The Hills of California”
Sam Pinkleton — “Oh, Mary!”
Danya Taymor — “John Proctor Is the Villain”
Kip Williams — “The Picture of Dorian Gray”
Prediction: Sam Pinkleton — “Oh, Mary!”
In case I haven’t talked about “Oh, Mary!” enough, here’s another win prediction. Overall, this production is extremely professional and the direction elevates it. Another win for the Lincolns.
To see how accurate these predictions are, tune into the Tony Awards on CBS and Paramount+ at 7:00 p.m. CST on June 9.
Dot Smith is a sophomore from Milwaukee studying journalism and design. Outside of writing for the arts and culture section, they can be found at the Farmer’s Market, reading a new book or listening to their collection of CDs.
This article was edited by Arts & Culture Associate Editor Elyea Soileau. If the information in this article needs to be corrected, please contact [email protected]. We want to hear from you!