This Southern Miss men’s basketball season can be broken down into three phases.
The first was from the start of the season to the Dec. 13 loss at McNeese State. Southern Miss spent those 10 games wondering when Andre Curbelo, its prized transfer-portal addition, would be eligible to play. The second phase ranges from the Dec. 18 win at Lamar to the Jan. 11 win at ULM. Those were the six games that Curbelo has played this season. Finally, the third phase has been the five games since the ULM win. Southern Miss has been without Curbelo and fellow starter Victor Hart during that time, but has managed to go 3-2.
Southern Miss (12-9, 6-3) is in the mix to repeat as Sun Belt champions. The Golden Eagles have a favorable schedule, too, with six of the final eight regular-season games at home after this weekend’s road swing.
Here are three areas where Southern Miss must continue to improve in the final 10 games.
3-point defense
This was a big talking point one month ago, especially after the stinker at Georgia Southern. The winless Eagles drained 15 3-pointers for an 88-67 win over Southern Miss.
Following that game, opponents were shooting 35.7% from 3 against the Golden Eagles on the season. That was the 313th-worst in the country. KenPom’s advanced analytics also tabbed Southern Miss at 270th in adjusted defensive efficiency rating.
But the Golden Eagles have improved defensively over the last eight games. Opponents are now shooting 34.9% on 3-pointers, ranking 280th nationally. Southern Miss’ adjusted defensive efficiency has dropped too, now at 210th.
However, two of those games are anchored by James Madison and ULM both shooting below 19% from 3. In the five games since Curbelo and Hart’s injuries, opponents are shooting 39.8% from beyond the arc.
It’s probably too small of a sample size to determine their absences as a cause – Troy and Arkansas State are great 3-point shooting teams too – but it’s still an aspect that can be shored up.
Offensive ball movement
The Golden Eagles are shooting 42% from the field, the fourth-worst in the Sun Belt.
Simply shooting the ball better obviously can raise that rate, but so can better ball movement.
The offense is visibly different without Curbelo in the lineup. His ability to push the pace and utilize his vision to create opportunities for others is simply on another level that can’t be matched.
When Southern Miss reaches its dry spells, it’s often when the offense becomes stagnant with heavy isolation play. It works sometimes, but won’t all the time.
The Golden Eagles are averaging 12.5 assists per game, the ninth-most in the conference.
Getting more creative offensively can help ease some of the pressure.
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Get and stay healthy
Southern Miss received good news on this front, with Hart expected to be available Wednesday (7:30 p.m., ESPN+) at Arkansas State (8-13, 4-5). However, Curbelo will remain out.
The two of them account for 25.3 points, 11.1 rebounds and 6.2 assists per game. Even though Southern Miss has fared well without them, they are critical to making a run in the Sun Belt Tournament.
Curbelo has been out for five games with what coach Jay Ladner last called “concussion-like symptoms.” No timetable has been shared of when he could return.
But we’ve only seen the Golden Eagles at full strength for essentially five and a half games. It resulted in wins over Lamar, Georgia State, James Madison and ULM and losses to Ole Miss and Georgia Southern.
Get Curbelo and Hart back on the floor and it’s difficult to say Southern Miss can’t make a run in March.
Sam Sklar is the Southern Miss beat reporter for the Hattiesburg American. Email him at [email protected] and follow him on X @sklarsam_.