What we like: Illinois’ defense is absolutely vicious. Brad Underwood has a cavalry of nasty, versatile, long-armed defenders, and the lack of crippling defensive breakdowns has been noticeable. Ty Rodgers, Terrence Shannon Jr. and Quincy Guerrier are all elite on that end, and when healthy, Coleman Hawkins is another high-level defender. Having great individual defenders certainly helps, but Illinois’ process has been so sound. The Illini, simply, refuse to let you shoot 3s, and smart, selective switching helps them keep drivers from burrowing all the way to the front of the rim. Illinois is allowing a shot at the rim on less than 25% of its possessions so far, which is the eighth-best mark nationally, according to Bart Torvik. Everyone wants to shoot layups and 3s; Illinois isn’t letting teams get much of either. Opponents are shooting the shots Illinois wants them to take, not vice versa. Illinois has the makeup of potentially the Big Ten’s best defense.
What we don’t like: Illinois’ halfcourt offense hasn’t been anything to write home about. The Illini are averaging 0.915 points per possession in halfcourt settings through six games, four of which have come against very bad teams. Oakland (who knocked off Xavier on Monday) is clearly a good mid-major team, and Marquette is elite. If halfcourt issues already pop up against low-majors, what will it look like against Tennessee or the rest of the Big Ten? Illinois dipped into the portal for Guerrier, Marcus Domask and Justin Harmon who all shot over 35% last year on catch-and-shoot 3-pointers. All three have not gotten off to a hot start. Domask is 5-for-23. Harmon is 1-for-6. Guerrier has a nagging wrist injury, but he’s still just 1-for-16 on catch-and-shoot 3s. That won’t get it done. Illinois as a team is also shooting just 57% at the charity stripe. Stinky.
Key stat: Illinois is forcing a long two on 46.3% of its defensive possessions. It’s the second-best mark in the country, per Bart Torvik.
What it means: Illinois has played up to expectations so far. As expected, the defense is elite. As expected, the offense can get shaky and a little stagnant with no true point guard and the continual free throw woes. But an elite defense with a Big Ten Player of the Year-caliber stud like Shannon can carry you an awfully long way in a Big Ten that has a host of questions after Purdue. No one is on Purdue’s level right now, but Illinois might be the best bet to finish second because the defense might be that good and Shannon has no business playing college basketball right now. He’s a complete, utter manchild who is playing violent basketball. Shannon is the best wing in the Big Ten by a wide margin.