Those following managerial transactions in the Major League Baseball offseason had quite a day on Monday. Brewers manager Craig Counsell was expected to either be hired by the Mets or stay with the Brewers. Instead, reports indicated he was going elsewhere and that place ended up being the north side of Chicago with the Cubs.
Counsell is now reportedly the highest-paid manager in baseball with a five-year, $40 million contract. Not only that, but now-former Cubs manager David Ross was under contract for the 2024 season, so the Cubs — under ownership of the Ricketts family — are laying out a relative ton of cash to the position of manager in the coming years.
Surely a maneuver like this is meant as the beginning of a big offseason instead of the signature move.
Keep in mind Counsell had won three division titles in his nine seasons with the Brewers. The club only had three division titles in history before he arrived. They are the defending NL Central champs. The Mets were hot on his trail, too, and certainly every team with an opening was interested in his services. It doesn’t seem like Counsell would take the Cubs job unless he was given assurances on the roster being beefed up in the coming months and years.
The Cubs were poised for a jump anyway.
They jumped from 74 wins to 83 in 2023. That was after sitting 26-36 in early June and with a late-season collapse, losing 15 of their last 22 games to miss the playoffs by a game. Ross has to shoulder some of the blame, but there were plenty of personnel issues. With the hiring of Counsell, Cubs president Jed Hoyer has attacked the manager side of the problem, now it’s time to add to the personnel side.
After picking up the option of starting pitcher Kyle Hendricks — the last vestige of the 2016 World Series title, unless we’re counting Hoyer, too — the Cubs have around $176 million committed to next season in player payroll. They’ve been over $200 million before and could certainly afford to jump up into the top tier. The luxury-tax threshold for 2024 is $237 million. We aren’t going to dive deep into the minituae, but the point is there’s wiggle room there. It’s possible Hoyer would be allowed to add something big to next year’s payroll and, remember, long-term deals can be backloaded. The Cubs don’t have at significant number of commitments after the next few years. Only Dansby Swanson is locked up beyond 2026, for example.
Further, the farm system has been significantly upgraded the last several years. Under Hoyer’s watch, the Cubs farm rankings have gone from lowly to middling to now fourth in baseball, according to MLB.com’s midseason rankings. Baseball America has them sixth.
Aside from a better manager, improving a major-league ballclub can come from four places.
- Internal roster improvement.
- Bringing up prospects from the minors.
- Trading prospects for established big-league talent.
- Signing free agents.
Internal improvement
Maybe in his third MLB season, Seiya Suzuki will find consistency, because when he’s good, he’s a force in the middle of the lineup. There’s just been long stretches of bad with it. Swanson is capable of a bit better offensive year and Nico Hoerner might finally start to hit for more power at the big-league level.
The main area here where things should be better moving forward is Jameson Taillon, though. He lost nearly a full run off his ERA in moving from the Yankees to the Cubs last season. He’s capable of a 2+ WAR season and last year checked in at -0.1. Several bullpen arms are capable of more, too, notably Keegan Thompson who completely fell apart last year after being great for most of April.
Remember, Counsell is a maestro with the bullpen, too.
Prospects
Top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong wasn’t quite ready for primetime yet in September, but it won’t be long. Outfielder Kevin Alcantara and pitcher Ben Brown are likely ready to contribute to the MLB club in 2024. Pitcher Jordan Wicks and slugger Alexander Canario both showed flashes of upside late in the season, too. There’s enough upside from this group alone to help the 2024 Cubs improve.
Of course, let’s keep in mind that the Cubs are looking at Marcus Stroman and Cody Bellinger, among others, heading to free agency.
Trade candidates
One of the reasons to gather prospects is the hope that they’ll one day make a splash in the majors and help the big-league club win. Lots of prospect depth means you can trade from that strength to improve the big-league roster. Just look at the champs. The Rangers developed players like Josh Jung and Leody Tavares internally, but they also traded for Jordan Montgomery and Max Scherzer, in addition to signing Corey Seager and Marcus Semien to huge deals while nailing scrap-heap pickups like Adolis García and getting Jonah Heim as part of a deal sending out a veteran. You can build from all directions.
The Cubs now have enough prospect depth to think about trading for someone like Shane Bieber or Dylan Cease. Sluggers Pete Alonso and Juan Soto are rumored to be maybe, possibly on the trade block and the Cubs should absolutely be in any talks involving either of those (or both?). There’s new leadership in Boston, so a call to former Cubs front office member Craig Breslow to ask about Rafael Devers wouldn’t hurt (though I doubt they’d trade him and instead my hunch is they want to aggressively build toward contention now). When inquiring with the Guardians on Bieber, why not ask about José Ramírez. It’s possible the Rays are looking to deal Tyler Glasnow, so the Cubs should absolutely check in there, too.
Those are just the big names that could be in discussion. Remember, Hoyer needs to beef up the bullpen and there’s always an opening to add Jonah Heim types in seemingly-lesser deals.
The point is, there are avenues to improve the roster from outside additions by dealing prospect depth and Hoyer will surely be aggressive in seeking out the right kind of deal.
Free agency
Of course, the easiest way to make a team look stronger is to go nuts in free agency. The Cubs had a modest spending spree last offseason, getting Swanson (seven years, $177 million) and Taillon (four years, $68 million).
As things stand, the Cubs need an everyday first baseman and could use upgrades at third base and somewhere in the outfield, preferably center. If planning on making a deep postseason run, a top-flight starting pitcher would certainly help to slot alongside Justin Steele and in front of the likes of Taillon, Hendricks and Wicks/Brown. The bullpen should be addressed, too, though likely not by spending mega-dollars for someone like Josh Hader.
A reunion with Bellinger would be a nice fit. A playoff workhorse type like Aaron Nola or Jordan Montgomery would be great. Would they make a move for Shohei Ohtani? Would they have a chance to win the sweepstakes if they did?
I’d expect the Cubs to take a look at Yoshinobu Yamamoto (for more on him, read here). Matt Chapman could fit the third base bill.
We could go down the list, too (would Jorge Soler like another run in Wrigley? Eduardo Rodriguez could fit in the rotation, etc.).
Basically, these are just a few of the types of names with whom the Cubs front office will do their due diligence this coming offseason. Ideally, adding something like two big bats and a frontline arm along with bullpen depth would be the play. I’m not sure they could pull it off, but something like Alonso, Bellinger and Nola along with several power arms in the bullpen would make them division favorites.
The main point is, the news of Counsell should get Cubs fans very excited. Not only is he one of the best managers in the game, but this move doesn’t happen unless ownership and the front office are ready to aggressively push for major player upgrades this coming offseason.