LEXINGTON — At least outside the borders of the Bluegrass State, expectations for Kentucky basketball have dipped.
The Wildcats are No. 16 in both major preseason polls, their lowest in the John Calipari era, which now is entering its 15th season in 2023-24. UK isn’t even the favorite to win the SEC: League media picked it to finish fourth at the conference media day; writers who cover the SEC for the USA TODAY Sports Network also predicted the Wildcats will place fourth this season.
That talk won’t reach the ears of Kentucky fans, whose views are unwavering: The Wildcats need to return to the Final Four for the first time since 2015. More important, they must capture the national championship for the first time since 2012.
The Wildcats haven’t even punched a ticket to the second weekend of the Big Dance since 2019, however, when they fell to Auburn in the Elite Eight.
“(The last few seasons), we have maxed out and we have been good and I’m proud. … But there’s a ‘Kentucky good,’” Calipari said during his appearance on the SEC Network set at the league media day last week. “And a ‘Kentucky good’ is both players standing out and having that group that is just, this, that, that.”
Though Calipari didn’t define precisely what “this, that, that” embodies, the implication was clear: It’s that intangible that separates all-time great Kentucky teams from more mortal editions.
In that vein, here are three reasons why UK could win its ninth national title — and three reasons why it could fall short yet again:
Why Kentucky basketball will win national championship
Elite, NBA-level talent will carry the day
At least when it comes to perceived NBA talent, no team in college basketball can match Kentucky this season. In USA TODAY’s latest 2024 mock draft, four Wildcats — Aaron Bradshaw, Rob Dillingham, Justin Edwards and D.J. Wagner — are projected as first-round picks.
That’s twice as many as any other college team.
Expanding it to every selection of the two-round draft, NBAdraftroom.com has the aforementioned quartet of Bradshaw, Dillingham, Edwards and Wagner going off the board as well as the Croatian sensation, 7-foot-2 freshman center Zvonimir Ivišić. And sophomore forward Ugonna Onyenso is on the precipice of being drafted, ranked as the No. 65 prospect in 2024.
While nearly every opponent UK faces will have more seasoned rosters, Calipari wouldn’t have it any other way.
“I’ve said it before: If you ask me, ‘Talent (versus) experience?’ I’m taking talent,” he said. “The talent usually figures it out.”
High-octane offense
Only once in Calipari’s 14 seasons have the Wildcats ever averaged more than 80 points per game. That came during the 2016-17 campaign, when they averaged 84.9. That team had four players average 12 or more points per outing; all four (Malik Monk, De’Aaron Fox, Bam Adebayo and Isaiah Briscoe) later wound up in the NBA.
All that squad did was post a 32-6 record, win the SEC regular-season and conference tournament crowns and come agonizingly close to the Final Four in a 75-73 Elite Eight defeat to North Carolina.
While this season’s team likely won’t equal the 2016-17 edition’s 84.9-points-per-game average, 80 isn’t out of the question.
Not with what UK has shown during its play at the GLOBL JAM tournament (where it went 4-0 and captured the gold medal) this summer in Toronto and last week’s Blue-White preseason scrimmage, where the expected reserves led the starters for the duration of the 40-minute contest in a 100-89 victory.
The options abound.
Dillingham and Wagner are first-rate scorers. Edwards can get his own shot. Senior Antonio Reeves is one of the best shooters in the country. Reed Sheppard and Joey Hart are deadly from deep. Jordan Burks led the Overtime Elite league in points per game last season. Tre Mitchell can score from anywhere. And Adou Thiero is improving day by day.
That’s not even including two integral (and big, in both a literal and figurative sense) pieces who are sidelined for now: Bradshaw and Ivišić, 7-footers who can score around the basket and on the perimeter.
Game-planning for UK’s offense will be a headache for opposing coaches all season.
Staff shakeup = improved results
Part of the reason UK might break that 80-point plane in points per game resides in one of the newest members of its program: first-year assistant John Welch.
A coach with nearly 30 years of experience, two decades in the NBA and another decade at the college level, Welch has most recently plied his trade in the pros. From 2002 through 2020, he was an assistant for five different organizations: the Memphis Grizzlies, Denver Nuggets, Brooklyn Nets, Sacramento Kings and the Los Angeles Clippers.
He has a wealth of knowledge of the current landscape of the NBA, which features 3-pointers aplenty and spacing is paramount. It’s no coincidence the Wildcats exhibited that style in Canada and the Blue-White scrimmage — not simply because the trio of 7-footers (Bradshaw, Ivišić and Onyenso) weren’t available.
Playing with tempo and spreading the floor suits this team.
Should the national championship trophy return to Lexington in April, Welch’s addition will be a key reason.
Why Kentucky basketball won’t win national championship
Youthful teams don’t win in March anymore
The makeup of this roster — eight freshmen, two sophomores, two seniors — simply isn’t conducive to success come March.
At least not when compared to recent national champions.
Just four freshmen — Alex Karaban (UConn ’23), Kihei Clark (Virginia ‘19), Omari Spellman (Villanova ‘18) and Jalen Brunson (Villanova ’16) — have been starters on national championship squads in the past decade.
UK likely will have three freshman starters — Bradshaw, Edwards and Wagner — at a minimum.
The last team to lean upon mostly freshman contributors and go on to win the national title is Duke in 2015. UK’s 2012 squad is the only other squad to win it all while heavily relying on freshmen.
Calipari’s roster building for his 2023-24 roster is going against the grain in a substantial way.
Recent history has shown it won’t pay off.
Lackluster defense
Last season was the worst defensive squad Calipari has trotted out at Kentucky: The team was outside the top 100 in blocks per game and field-goal percentage defense.
The blocks-per-game mark should improve this season given the size Bradshaw and Ivišić bring to the table, along with the sky-high potential Onyenso flashed in that department in limited minutes in 2022-23.
Every national champion since 2002, per KenPom.com, has finished 22nd or better in adjusted defensive efficiency, which measures points allowed per 100 possessions. The Wildcats tied for 68th in that category last season.
Logically, it’s hard to believe a team so inexperienced — Mitchell and Reeves are the only members of this season’s roster who have seen extensive playing time in college — will showcase enough improvement defensively for the Wildcats to win Title No. 9.
Tourney’s fickle nature
It’s called March Madness for a reason. Upsets happen. Last season, for the first time, not a single No. 1 seed even reached the Elite Eight.
The best teams over the course of the regular season, more often than not, come up short during the tournament. UK knows that as well as any program: It went 38-0 in 2014-15 before falling to Wisconsin in the Final Four.
A team must perfectly navigate six games, in the most unpredictable playoff in sports, to win it all.
Bottom line: Even if the Wildcats have a regular season for the ages, one listless night in March, or April, means the national title drought will extend for another year.
Prediction for how far Kentucky basketball will advance in NCAA Tournament
If the national championship was determined solely upon talent, UK would win in a cakewalk. But it’s not that easy.
While we’re predicting Kentucky will make it to the second weekend for the first time in five years, it says here the Wildcats will be stopped on the doorstep of the Final Four. A Kansas team with proven veterans — KJ Adams Jr., Hunter Dickinson, Dajuan Harris Jr. and Kevin McCullar Jr. are all juniors or seniors — will bring Kentucky’s season to a close in the Elite Eight.
3 keys:Here’s what will determine success for John Calipari and Kentucky basketball this season
5 questions:What John Calipari, Kentucky basketball must solve to ensure 2023-24 season is one to remember
Reach Kentucky men’s basketball and football reporter Ryan Black at [email protected] and follow him on X at @RyanABlack.