Let’s talk about the popular Microchip Technology Incorporated (NASDAQ:MCHP). The company’s shares saw a decent share price growth in the teens level on the NASDAQGS over the last few months. With many analysts covering the large-cap stock, we may expect any price-sensitive announcements have already been factored into the stock’s share price. However, what if the stock is still a bargain? Today I will analyse the most recent data on Microchip Technology’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.

See our latest analysis for Microchip Technology

What Is Microchip Technology Worth?

According to my valuation model, Microchip Technology seems to be fairly priced at around 2.82% above my intrinsic value, which means if you buy Microchip Technology today, you’d be paying a relatively reasonable price for it. And if you believe that the stock is really worth $81.24, there’s only an insignificant downside when the price falls to its real value. Although, there may be an opportunity to buy in the future. This is because Microchip Technology’s beta (a measure of share price volatility) is high, meaning its price movements will be exaggerated relative to the rest of the market. If the market is bearish, the company’s shares will likely fall by more than the rest of the market, providing a prime buying opportunity.

What kind of growth will Microchip Technology generate?

Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company’s future expectations. Though in the case of Microchip Technology, it is expected to deliver a negative earnings growth of -0.9%, which doesn’t help build up its investment thesis. It appears that risk of future uncertainty is high, at least in the near term.

What This Means For You

Are you a shareholder? Currently, MCHP appears to be trading around its fair value, but given the uncertainty from negative returns in the future, this could be the right time to reduce the risk in your portfolio. Is your current exposure to the stock optimal for your total portfolio? And is the opportunity cost of holding a negative-outlook stock too high? Before you make a decision on the stock, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on MCHP for a while, now may not be the most optimal time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. The price seems to be trading at fair value, which means there’s less benefit from mispricing. In addition to this, the negative growth outlook increases the risk of holding the stock. However, there are also other important factors we haven’t considered today, which can help crystalize your views on MCHP should the price fluctuate below its true value.

If you want to dive deeper into Microchip Technology, you’d also look into what risks it is currently facing. Our analysis shows 2 warning signs for Microchip Technology (1 is a bit concerning!) and we strongly recommend you look at these before investing.

If you are no longer interested in Microchip Technology, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.